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Thread: Cereals price tracker

  1. #1
    imported_Blue
    Guest

    Combinables Prices

    Continued from:
    http://farmingforum.co.uk/forum/YaBB...715147/960#960

    Post by JCB 2170 on 17. Aug 2008 at 16:07
    Tesla wrote on 13. Aug 2008 at 16:25:
    50% sold at 358ex so fairly happy. Trouble is, and I expect a few people in same boat, all sold along with wheat to pay for me fert "on trust" end of Jan. Those "trust" deals now seem to want paying in a fortnight!
    Hearing that it is starting to chit in the pod - that which hasnt fallen to the floor. I am a happy long holder but am going to need to see some cash soon.

    Oil up today, and sterling weaker against Euro and Dollar - SFP cheque could be quite big this year!


    Should I be topping up my gas-oil tanks??

    What is the best price offered for wheat on this weather market... for spot delivery?? I have had 135 ex. offered for group 3 (Robigus) wheat

    What date is the SFP exchange rate set??
    Post by Tesla on 17. Aug 2008 at 16:17
    I think last year the rate was set on September 30th? Last years was basis 1 = e0.675 and currently it is around the e0.79.

    We topped up on Friday
    Post by yellow belly on 18. Aug 2008 at 16:50
    grain prices up in the usa today
    draged up uk feed wheat

    phisical prices down today for immediate delivery
    Post by Mark C on 18. Aug 2008 at 19:39
    Biscuit wheat 125 for delivery this week, could go up if it keeps raining!!
    Post by Tesla on 18. Aug 2008 at 19:52
    Mark C wrote on 18. Aug 2008 at 19:39:
    Biscuit wheat 125 for delivery this week, could go up if it keeps raining!!
    Yes, but in this weather, its got to be a hold. Where can you import good soft wheat from? Getting the consort in and dryed is next priority. If they are short now they will be properly short come June. Its got to be dump feed and hold quality.
    Post by Kenny on 18. Aug 2008 at 21:05
    Tesla me old fruit- disagree on that one. You can sell nov feed wheat for 120 ex. Lets say the premium goes to 10 for quality softs, thus 130ex. It's only an extra 5 over your 125 offer today. Are you banking on premiums going to 15 which would be a 10 carry to nov, which is getting just about attractive, or 20 + for soft wheat, which would show your bet paid off. I do agree with you on forward sales. If, like me you can't take advantage of the current weather market, sell the lot forward, and stick any quality premiums on at a later date. Does anyone want to suggest feed wheat will go up this year?
    Post by Tesla on 19. Aug 2008 at 09:07
    I had the very same conversation with a rep this monring. We cut a load of Humber and got the results in (80/335/12.5%).

    Speaking with a rep, and I have to say that he is quite good, was that anything with a hagberg is a long hold this year and fully expects the premium to rise. His view was that a) there are plenty more world harvests to go before June but also that b) there could be plenty more wet here to increase short term lack of supply.

    Now for 300t I am going to take a view that its worth a hold. The forward price of wheat is crap, so the selling forward is not tempting as I have sold 75% forward at much higher prices.

    Sorely tempted, but this weather might keep combines indoors for another week and make return to a "weather premium" and will also be knackering hagbergs making a bigger "long quality" premium.

    I'll chew my nails and think again when I need to pay for some fert at the end of next week

    As an aside, the Humber which looked scraggy all year has performed, whilst the Timber which has looked the business has only just trailed it.

    Weather premium now non-existant. Offered 111ex today, over 110ex next week for feed plus around a 6 premium for quality.
    Post by yellow belly on 19. Aug 2008 at 14:59
    there is upside based on a poor planting season this autumn and frost damage in ukr kasak ans russia

    other than that permiums will rise and fix the feed price if you have not got a lot priced yet
    Post by ex_pool_manager_ha on 19. Aug 2008 at 15:21 Agreed YB

    Also heard that Spain will plant more sunflower over wheat next year due to higher input costs. If this is the case it should help our export market potential for next year.

    In the meantime harvest 2008 wheat now bid 107 ex farm.......
    Post by Elmsted on 19. Aug 2008 at 15:29
    Must agree on oilseeds, planting for next harvest 2009 is likely to go much higher, from what i see and talk to.
    Post by Tesla on 19. Aug 2008 at 15:50
    Whats the word on November 2009 prices? Anyone started to sell yet? I'm beginning to forget about this harvest marketting and look a bit forward as we will be drilling in just about a fortnight if the seed turns up.
    Post by yellow belly on 19. Aug 2008 at 20:18
    the best guide and only reliable one
    http://www.liffe-commodities.com/com...x?targ=XT/F.LI

    made some sales a month ago for 09 but was not brave enough to price enough even though i believe prices will fall still further the trouble is the memory of last harvest is fresh

    there is a world trend over the last few years of a good harvest followed by a poor harvest with prices reflecting the supply in each year
    2007 low yealds high prices
    2006 good lower
    2005poor higher
    2004 good lower
    2003 poor higher
    2002good lower
    2001 poor higher
    2000good lower

    2008 goodyealds lower prices
    so what of 2009 well this time next year we will all know ;D

  2. #2
    yellow belly
    Guest
    well lets get started on this thread again


    spot prices keep falling . the uk is trading feed wheat at a much lower price than europe
    either their prices will fall to ours or we will export our wheat till it runs out
    and prices rise next year

    other factors how much wheat will get planted this autumn
    imho the market does not have enough risk premium for a harvest in 2009 of less than home requirement

  3. #3
    wetpawprints
    Guest

    Group1

    Quoted 150 ex,Full spec group 1.
    1.50/0.1 point below 13% Average at moment is around 12.8%

  4. #4
    Tesla
    Guest
    110ex Jan 09.

    Having been up in Yorkshire today, there is an AWFUL lot not cut yet. Not even in the far north. Land flooded, water up between the furrows of ploughed land. If the UK is 30% still in the field, I think the prices will have to buck up when they realise that we may not be able to cut enough to leave the huge export surplus predicted.

    I will sell some more at the above price tomorrow. I have sounded the rep out about covering my pool contracts with spot wheat and he is fine with it. Should then be able to hold the quality gp3s until the end of the year when I am sure they will have un out and we will see price rises as we begin to inport.

    Sad to see rape prices so poop though. On todays trip saw rape still to cut and that was south of York. Looked like silvery strands and there is surely no seed in those pods.

  5. #5
    yellow belly
    Guest
    over the last few weeks the comodity funds have been reducing the amount of money they have invested in grains which they have held on the long side
    this has coinsided with the wheat harvest which has been higher yealding in many countries that was predicted in early july and we have all seen wheat prices fall
    the comodity funds will have to stop selling oneday or they will be completely out of the market when this has happened the world price will have some scope to flutuate up again if it coincides with some poor weather in major wheat production areas then we will see some big jumps in prices for 2009 2010 2008 prices will only rise if a significant percentage of uk crop is not harvested heres praying for 2 weeks dry weather before the end of september

  6. #6
    JDS
    Guest
    Sold xi 19 yesterday, 11% protein, 73s.w,250 h, 123.00/t Sept. move.

  7. #7
    ex_pool_manager_ha
    Guest
    I am going to sit out on market at the moment rightly or wrongly- several reasons

    firstly, I undertand we are way cheaper than French on export market
    second, sold half already and cashflow OK, all harvest wheat safely away
    thirdly, all stored wheats now sub 14.5% mc and will keep, awaiting sample results
    fourthly, think that there will be a lot of distressed sellers around given weather problems
    fifthly (?), less wheat in 2009??


    Reserve the right to be persuaded otherwise

  8. #8
    yellow belly
    Guest
    imho our low prices are because of selling pressure and the buyers not having to bid for grain if farmers all said min 120 they would have to pay up or go without

  9. #9
    slejpner
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by JDS View Post
    Sold xi 19 yesterday, 11% protein, 73s.w,250 h, 123.00/t Sept. move.
    Where are you JDS?

    Solstice, if sub 11.3%, other wise A1 quoted today feed plus 8 !?!
    (Proteins in a 500 ton heap range from 11.3 to 11.8. SW 79. Hag 300+)

    I told him "no".


    ex-pool manager - thats about my take on the situation.

  10. #10
    Tesla
    Guest
    Problem with the gp1s is that they are all about the protein. Low protein milling wheat is not much use. Probably would go on a 11.3/74/180 spec as a gp2 would. I though the lower grade gp1s were basis 12.7/74/225?

    Low prices cant last for ever. So much to cut some is going to end up disced in. What percentage do we need to loose to get to import parity? 10%?

  11. #11
    yellow belly
    Guest
    imho we need to lose 20 % of the 16.5 million ton projected harvest to get to parity about half of the grain still to be harvested:cry:

  12. #12
    yellow belly
    Guest
    the uk 2008 harvest could easly be down to 15.5 million tonnes already due to the field losses now

    in 2 weeks time farmers will know how much these losses add up to and can then make marketing descisions based on their facts not trade speculation
    we will also start to have an idea of the likely area that will get planted this autumn

    no more sales till christmas and the likely area of black sea crops they have a trend of every other year producing export grain this year they have plenty next year still a good question

  13. #13
    Tesla
    Guest
    If the losses stack up to another 1.5m or so then I'm expecting some RAPID and extreme price rises. Going to be on the phone buying some more cheap feed tomorrow.

    Thinking of rape, considering everyone has seen that as stable, tight, and favorable to hold, it is dropping damned fast :Z

  14. #14
    slejpner
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by Tesla View Post

    Thinking of rape, considering everyone has seen that as stable, tight, and favorable to hold, it is dropping damned fast :Z
    USA soybeans could still come in well below trade and speculator hopes/opinions.

  15. #15
    ex_pool_manager_ha
    Guest
    I find it very interesting that some elements of the grain trade are still talking of a 17.5 to 18 million tonne UK wheat crop. With a third allegedly still to be combined, and some bushel weights of 65kg reported on BFF, I find this hard to believe.
    Still think sales should be postponed until the crop is in and quality results known.
    I heard yesterday that soft wheat at 74kg 225hag could be worth a 20 premium over feed @ 98. Only had wheat properly sampled on Wed so keeping fingers crossed!

  16. #16
    slejpner
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by ex_pool_manager_ha View Post
    I heard yesterday that soft wheat at 74kg 225hag could be worth a 20 premium over feed @ 98. Only had wheat properly sampled on Wed so keeping fingers crossed!
    Sold a couple of loads of what, in a normal year, would be considered normal Alchemy for 115 today. Movement guaranteed next week. So i guess thats a 17 premium right there.

    Need the floor to dry beans, because beans and the Allmet continuous flow don't seem to like each other.

  17. #17
    JCB 2170
    Guest
    Today I am only being offered 100 / ex. farm for dry feed wheat... it must be loosing money at that

    Good job I sold almost all of my crop forward... at far better prices

  18. #18
    Tesla
    Guest
    Indeed. In the way that people who last year got it all in the shed and sold for a fortune, this year they will be making peanuts.

    Although I am sad at 100 a ton, I bugetted for the amount of income I wanted per acre. Sold enough wheat at high prices to achieve that so all the "surplus" that may be sold at say 100 a ton is a bonus.

  19. #19
    Grain_Buyer
    Guest

    Thumbs up JCB you little monkey.....

    Quote Originally Posted by JCB 2170 View Post
    Today I am only being offered 100 / ex. farm for dry feed wheat... it must be loosing money at that

    Good job I sold almost all of my crop forward... at far better prices

    JCB quote from old board, not that long ago....
    Having sold 60% forward, I am in a similar position... and will not need to sell any more till at least March

    The old board has come back to haunt you on that one.

  20. #20
    JCB 2170
    Guest
    Grain buyer, I sold quite a bit on the weather market at good prices.... so very little at these current poor prices

  21. #21
    Andy-Agent
    Guest
    Client just been quotes 95 ex for barley today!!!

  22. #22
    Tesla
    Guest
    Doesnt sound bad. Well, it sounds bad, but better than as available wheat.

  23. #23
    herd333
    Guest
    What is feed wheat worth today?

  24. #24
    ex_pool_manager_ha
    Guest
    92 ex farm East Anglia, 114 ex soft wheat 74kg 225hag - must be under 15 moisture or else!!
    Told beans are circa 135 ?? No bids for Oats. Have'nt heard a price for OSR recently but mine are in a pool.....
    Seems that the prices seen in 2007/08 are a dream.

  25. #25
    Tesla
    Guest
    Beans are knackered. Glad mine in pool. Those soft wheat prices apply to gp4 softs too.

  26. #26
    herd333
    Guest
    Ex pool manager,
    92 seems a very poor price.What is it worth on the continent?It would seem to make sense to lock wheat in a barn at this price and not sell it spring 2010.This could be financed by not putting in a crop this autumn.I think thats what I'll do.High input prices and lack of finance would suggest a much smaller worldwide wheat crop next year.

  27. #27
    JCB 2170
    Guest
    I was bid 98 for feed wheat ex. farm yesterday.. Mon 22nd

    Getting fed up with DON tests, am not sending any wheat to a tip that needs one... only had one DON rejection, but that was one too many...

  28. #28
    herd333
    Guest
    is there much wheat being traded at these prices?

  29. #29
    JCB 2170
    Guest
    The merchants are starting to find it hard sourcing DRY wheat... I think they have boats in.. and are starting to panic a wee bit

    I was bid 110 ex. today for any variety.. min hagberg 150 for spot movement... thats a rise of 12

  30. #30
    herd333
    Guest
    Sounds a bit more promising.Farmers are keen to sell some to get room and to get cash to pay fert bills.Users dont want to lay out cash for wheat until they have to.Wheat will only be sub 100 if farmers want to/have to sell it cheap.Any news on malting barley price?

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