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Thread: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

  1. #31
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Uwork4menow View Post
    In fact I'd like to see them with a UKIP coalition.
    Well if they both don't come down off their high horse and do a deal we'll have a Labour/Lib Dem government instead.

    For anyone despairing of the damage the increasingly toxic mix of EU regulation allied to the UK's bloated public sector is doing to our country, that prospect is truly horrendous.

  2. #32
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Where there's a scheme there's a schemer the soon we say bollo.cks to them all the better - SFP 'S or not .

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by pig fighter View Post
    Only thinking combineables...at todays piss poor markets modest yields will produce 1000 per hectare. Contractor can invest in some nice kit, pay his men and and leave a reasonable margin with a fee of 300 and the supply trade would like to take around 450. So still 250 in the kitty for the Landlord. SFP has been the gravy for Contract Agreements but obviously an important part of net income for smaller and less efficient producers. I would guess that if and when subs are removed the Contract Farmer is the guy who has his business best placed to go forward.
    A little optimistic dont you think?
    The contractor will become tenant when the landlord cannot stomach the losses, no sfp would be brilliant after the initial pain.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by NewQman View Post
    If we had joined the Euro, we would now be bust. Look what is happening in Greece, Spain, Italy, France etc. Keeping the pound has saved us.

    I would leave the corrupt EU today. We pay in billions more than we get out. It is a corrupt socialist jobs for the boys madhouse.

    As for wanting a Labour government!!!!!!!!!! Well they did such a good job last time, didn't they NOT.

    This mansion tax would soon go down to smaller properties and farms are worth quite a lot. The jealous socialists would soon want your money to pay their bone idle mates to lie in bed all day.

    Labour ruin this country every time they get elected. This is a fact, at the end of every single Labour government unemployment is higher than at the start.

    Edward Miliband as Prime Minister,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, what sort of joke is that? Edward Balls looking after the accounts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, madness.

    I loath Labour and the EU. (in case no one had noticed)
    Excuse me, but britain IS bust. Our debt grows by 2billion every WEEK. IT IS NOW 1.4 TRILLION QUID.
    The last govt was not labour, just a gathering of A-holes feathering their own nest.
    At least greece ,spain etc have taken the pain, ours is yet to come.

  5. #35
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Oil now below 80 dollars and drifting down, how long before the biofuel industry can't take the pain no more and all that grain ends up on the animal feed market?

    http://www.oil-price.net/

    Budget on lower grain prices in the next five years and a lot lower oil revenue for the chancellor.

  6. #36
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    I'm with Jack on this (and Olly to my surprise).

    The big 2 problems we have in the UK are the supermarkets and education. Or rather de-education. That is, the supermarkets constantly pushing for 'efficiency' and not telling the consumer about the cost of that, whether in human poverty or animal suffering.

    I'm alright. I buy my milk from Riverford farm, just down the road from me. I've read up on stuff and aside from raw milk that I drank as a kid and means I never get bugs, this is a best fit. Non-homogenised and organic. Suits me and I will pay extra for it. A fair bit extra over that other stuff you get in supermarkets. For meat, we get 90% from Eversfield and the rest from my own chickens. It costs but we have it little and often and it's perfect and delicious. But, I'm probably in a minority of 1-5% of people who give a toss. The rest are texting their mates when Tesco puts on 2 for a fiver chickens. I would rather eat a turd but they love it and it goes across the spectrum.

    It really doesn't help when the filth of Tesco are getting into our schools and trucking off the kids on their 'farm to fork' tours. Telling them that you can only get white eggs from white chickens and sending them home with a Tesco branded goody bag and meal ideas. Fortunately our school now feel thoroughly ashamed of themselves. Rightly so but they meant well and have a lot on.

  7. #37
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Uwork4menow View Post
    There is no one more pro-European than me I can assure you, but the EU is in decline. We are fortunate we have not joined the Euro. Some may remember how enthusiastic I once was on the whole EU project, but time has proved me very very wrong indeed.

    The whole EU project has failed. It has become a resting place for useless, unelected and corrupt politicos on all sides. The idea that you can get a number of countries to accept the same monetary policy, much less fiscal policy, is nothing but a dream.

    You cannot have the UK and Germany slogging its guts out when simultaneously the French lower their retirement age and up the minimum wage. Throw in the European court of human rights and it is a farce. Add in unlimited immigration, which is costing you and me very dearly, and the whole project needs to be be consigned to the history books.

    A total waste of money.

    I am fairly happy with the conservatives so far, I thought Osborne was too young for the job but he has made some very unpopular decisions and he is dragging us out of the mire which Labour so happily sold us into.

    Vote red? Jesus man you would have to be a complete lunatic, it was Labour who brought in human rights, who raided the national pension pot and who sold the UKs gold reserves during a historic low. No way.

    No government of any colour is going to pay scant attention to farming, it is a non-issue, and the industry employs virtually no one. The most important political issue we have right now is of the economy, because without that the whole damn country could die.

    I will upset some now with this comment but I can tell you, I am totally and singularly uninterested in the plight of any public servants, police, fire brigade or teachers et al and their non-pay rises. The private sector is not handing out pay rises and has been until now shedding jobs like no tomorrow. The public sector gets very good pensions, far in excess of what we do in the private sector, so I say strike all you like, I'm not interested. Until the economy is back on track I would suggest they shut the hell up.

    Labour gave so much money to the NHS yet it still isn't enough. The whole public sector is bloated and needs to be severely trimmed. This is how Blair managed to get re-elected, he directly employed so many people himself.

    Blue blue blue I'm afraid. In fact I'd like to see them with a UKIP coalition.
    agree with much of the above. apart from the bit on the cost of immigration- there is good statistical evidence that immigrants contribute more through work than they take through accessing services.

  8. #38
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Phil View Post
    Stewart.

    Assuming the younger generation you talk of are starting from scratch without assistance from "the bank of Mum, Dad, Grandad etc to back them"
    How in goods name are they going to raise the sort of capital needed these days to even take on the tenancy of a farm in the UK...let alone buy one ?
    Phil

    Basic economics really, If the Uk pulls out of the EU (very unlikely) and if subsidies are removed (quite possible if the UK does pull out of the EU). Then the uneconomic farms who need sub to survive, along with the subsidy junkies who cannot manage without their yearly fix of SFP would be quite likely to quit farming.

    This would see a number of farms both owned and tenanted coming onto the market, with prices and rents at a more realistic value, the younger generation with the confidence of youth (some would refer this to the stupidity of youth) could then be in a better position to take on the farms than they are today.

    It would not be for the faint hearted and would take big Gonads along with some high debt gearing, but whats wrong with a bit of debt, it is a great motivator.

  9. #39
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Stewart View Post
    Phil

    Basic economics really, If the Uk pulls out of the EU (very unlikely) and if subsidies are removed (quite possible if the UK does pull out of the EU). Then the uneconomic farms who need sub to survive, along with the subsidy junkies who cannot manage without their yearly fix of SFP would be quite likely to quit farming.

    This would see a number of farms both owned and tenanted coming onto the market, with prices and rents at a more realistic value, the younger generation with the confidence of youth (some would refer this to the stupidity of youth) could then be in a better position to take on the farms than they are today.

    It would not be for the faint hearted and would take big Gonads along with some high debt gearing, but whats wrong with a bit of debt, it is a great motivator.
    Exactly.

    Loss of SFP would be painful for many UK farming businesses, but for agriculture as a whole it would be a good thing.

    Without SFP support uneconomic businesses would fold, large scale contract farming operations would be less economic and there would be a greater incentive to let land, and a knock on effect on the rental and freehold values of farmland, which in turn creates opportunities both for new entrants to gain a foothold on the farming ladder and for forward looking businesses to expand.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by danseyspass View Post
    A little optimistic dont you think?
    The contractor will become tenant when the landlord cannot stomach the losses, no sfp would be brilliant after the initial pain.
    I don't think so really, we can only look forward with the info we have today....my modest yield is below the national average, my input costs are high input, my contractor stubble to stubble is the going rate today and Nov 2015 wheat is 135.
    I don't believe the current crop of contractors would simply become tenants...they would have to pay a rent higher than the first charge Contract Agreement fee and they would have to capitalise the whole operation too....it is a big step from taking out Scheme Deals on a few bits of big kit and hiring some hooligans to sit on them.

  11. #41
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    I do agree that land prices have to some extent been distorted by high subsidy prices to large scale farmers, however that is only part of the story. Land prices bear no relation to land value. Grain prices etc are so low relatively that returns have little bearing on land prices.
    What has affected prices as much as anything is rollover after capital gains, and also with money printing now, where better to invest than in land? It retains its value better than anything else, and provides still a good inheritance tax solution.
    Who in the right mind would buy land at 10,000 an acre to get 70 sub?
    Who will pay 10,000 an acre to get 50-100 profit?

    It was only in the 1950,s that land could be bought on agricultural value. Corn at 30 a tonne(including subsidy) and land at 50 an acre.

    If we leave the EU I would agree we shall lose the SFP, but the implications are not all that simple. Subsidies may now be out of date and unpopular, but I do wish people would realise just how much they have benefitted the nation.

    Jack Caley

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by pig fighter View Post
    I don't think so really, we can only look forward with the info we have today....my modest yield is below the national average, my input costs are high input, my contractor stubble to stubble is the going rate today and Nov 2015 wheat is 135.
    I don't believe the current crop of contractors would simply become tenants...they would have to pay a rent higher than the first charge Contract Agreement fee and they would have to capitalise the whole operation too....it is a big step from taking out Scheme Deals on a few bits of big kit and hiring some hooligans to sit on them.
    don't be to sure....what choice would they have? yesterday i heard of someone who had leased their beet quota out for next year for 4/t....the hirer is then offering 200/ac for the ground to grow it.....so 10t/ac before he starts.....only thing i can think is he's got a big harvester he wants work for

    so precedent is there

    other thing to consider is what would happen to the pound if we pulled out of europe?....would it still enjoy it's safe haven celebrity status?...if the pounds attraction is that it's the best currency inside the eu and that attraction goes ( if we pullout)....sterling might become toilet paper and we wouldn't need subs perhaps

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by spin cycle View Post
    don't be to sure....what choice would they have? yesterday i heard of someone who had leased their beet quota out for next year for 4/t....the hirer is then offering 200/ac for the ground to grow it.....so 10t/ac before he starts.....only thing i can think is he's got a big harvester he wants work for

    so precedent is there

    other thing to consider is what would happen to the pound if we pulled out of europe?....would it still enjoy it's safe haven celebrity status?...if the pounds attraction is that it's the best currency inside the eu and that attraction goes ( if we pullout)....sterling might become toilet paper and we wouldn't need subs perhaps
    I doubt that for a good while. The square mile still does a huge amount of the world's financial business. London is a hub at the moment. It could go either way in the long run but I suspect it wouldn't be that bad.

  14. #44
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Stewart View Post
    Phil

    Basic economics really, If the Uk pulls out of the EU (very unlikely) and if subsidies are removed (quite possible if the UK does pull out of the EU). Then the uneconomic farms who need sub to survive, along with the subsidy junkies who cannot manage without their yearly fix of SFP would be quite likely to quit farming.

    This would see a number of farms both owned and tenanted coming onto the market, with prices and rents at a more realistic value, the younger generation with the confidence of youth (some would refer this to the stupidity of youth) could then be in a better position to take on the farms than they are today.

    It would not be for the faint hearted and would take big Gonads along with some high debt gearing, but whats wrong with a bit of debt, it is a great motivator.
    There are a number of farms who can survive without the SFP, and even more so if input prices came down as a result.

    Well established farmers would wish to expand, even if it is to accommodate offspring. They would have stock and machinery to spread over more acres and would easily out-bid most new entrants,
    And it's a fact of life that Landlords wanting a tenant on any particular type of lease invariably favour applicants with a proven track record.

    But I can still hear Michael Foot (of donkey jacket fame) saying that food supplies are too important to be left to farmers with no Government support.
    NZ stopped subsidies because they couldn't afford to continue paying them. The UK on the other hand spend more on administering social security than on the combined subsidy payments which farming receives.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by spin cycle View Post
    don't be to sure....what choice would they have? yesterday i heard of someone who had leased their beet quota out for next year for 4/t....the hirer is then offering 200/ac for the ground to grow it.....so 10t/ac before he starts.....only thing i can think is he's got a big harvester he wants work for

    so precedent is there

    other thing to consider is what would happen to the pound if we pulled out of europe?....would it still enjoy it's safe haven celebrity status?...if the pounds attraction is that it's the best currency inside the eu and that attraction goes ( if we pullout)....sterling might become toilet paper and we wouldn't need subs perhaps
    They all go round in circles chasing their own tails.
    If marbles were currency some would always do good out of it !

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    The loss of the SFP will mean smaller units struggle far more than the larger ones. Big farmers or those already in the game will scoop up the land far far quicker than the smaller, purely because they have a large base to borrow money against. So the idea that somehow the loss of the SFP would be good for everyone is mental. And I don't believe for one second it would reduce the value of farmland- most land is being sold to people with money from outside the industry who probably have no clue SFP exists.

    You'll kill off a lot of smaller units, maybe some inefficient ones, but don't con yourself it would mean new entrants.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack_Caley View Post
    I do agree that land prices have to some extent been distorted by high subsidy prices to large scale farmers, however that is only part of the story. Land prices bear no relation to land value. Grain prices etc are so low relatively that returns have little bearing on land prices.
    What has affected prices as much as anything is rollover after capital gains, and also with money printing now, where better to invest than in land? It retains its value better than anything else, and provides still a good inheritance tax solution.
    Who in the right mind would buy land at 10,000 an acre to get 70 sub?
    Who will pay 10,000 an acre to get 50-100 profit?

    It was only in the 1950,s that land could be bought on agricultural value. Corn at 30 a tonne(including subsidy) and land at 50 an acre.

    If we leave the EU I would agree we shall lose the SFP, but the implications are not all that simple. Subsidies may now be out of date and unpopular, but I do wish people would realise just how much they have benefitted the nation.

    Jack Caley
    Hi Jack

    Just how have subsidies benefitted the nation? They have benefitted a few landowners who were relatively well of anyway and did not need the extra help. They have not benefited the agricultural industry in general, quite the reverse. The payments of subsidies stifle innovation and create inefficiencies leading to an industry that stagnates.

    Regards
    Stewart

  18. #48
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Uwork4menow View Post
    The loss of the SFP will mean smaller units struggle far more than the larger ones. Big farmers or those already in the game will scoop up the land far far quicker than the smaller, purely because they have a large base to borrow money against. So the idea that somehow the loss of the SFP would be good for everyone is mental. And I don't believe for one second it would reduce the value of farmland- most land is being sold to people with money from outside the industry who probably have no clue SFP exists.

    You'll kill off a lot of smaller units, maybe some inefficient ones, but don't con yourself it would mean new entrants.
    Don't underestimate the ability of the British farmer to adapt!!

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Pasty View Post
    I doubt that for a good while. The square mile still does a huge amount of the world's financial business. London is a hub at the moment. It could go either way in the long run but I suspect it wouldn't be that bad.
    The square mile carries out a lot of the worlds trade, this trade is generally now done in two currencies, the US$ and the Euro.It is a pity the UK did not join the latter to be part of one of the two major trading currencies.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Stewart View Post
    The square mile carries out a lot of the worlds trade, this trade is generally now done in two currencies, the US$ and the Euro.It is a pity the UK did not join the latter to be part of one of the two major trading currencies.
    What planet are you on? UK growth is out-stripping that of France and Germany, if we left the EU it would make no difference to the value of Sterling.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Stewart View Post
    Don't underestimate the ability of the British farmer to adapt!!
    Established players will adapt and look to suck up additional land, new entrants will not be encouraged by the disappearance of the SFP. If I own land, I can borrow against it. If you have none, you have no collateral to borrow against. I win.

  22. #52
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Stewart View Post
    The square mile carries out a lot of the worlds trade, this trade is generally now done in two currencies, the US$ and the Euro.It is a pity the UK did not join the latter to be part of one of the two major trading currencies.
    Yes they do, but that shows a lack of understanding about markets and currencies work. Something I do know about for a change.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Pasty View Post
    Yes they do, but that shows a lack of understanding about markets and currencies work. Something I do know about for a change.
    Perhaps you could enlighten me, If the Euro is such a failure why is the rest of the world quite happy to use it for international trade?

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    If we were in the Euro: we would have completely collapsed in the recession. Only the ability to devalue the pound saved our skins. The Greeks, Italians, Spanish couldn't; they are now zombie economies.

    France has the same problem plus employment rules and regs that resemble the UK in the early 70s.

    (When) we leave the whole system will probably collapse. We will take the blame, forever. Tin hats for everyone in Europe.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    I predict the Germans will eventually realise the EU is nothing but a burden for them and they will leave it.

    Regarding immigration, no one on this forum is against people entering our shores to work. What people are against, is the total free access to education, health care and benefits that many migrants receive. The country cannot afford this kind of burden, and furthermore, if I was to move to say Bulgaria, or France, or Spain, and work, I would not receive access to any of these things for free. It is this issue which makes the British public rightly upset.

    There is also the on-going and hidden cost of migrants who do not speak English at all, a relative of mine sends their child to a large comprehensive and it now has pupils from about 4 different faiths and with 10 different languages. This means a lot of teaching assistants and interpreters which you and I are all paying for. The same is repeated in the NHS and with the police and social services. The whole system is unable to deal with these people effectively.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    the euro is hamstrung by the liberal social democratic policies of the continent (rightly or wrongly) meaning their public spending is to high......the pound is a way the world can keep money inside the eu without the risk of this lame duck currency

    yes our deficit is high....yes it might catch up and bite us....but virtually all the main players have this problem........if the uk came out of eu it could make us a safer haven or no different...or worse because of the loss of acsess to eu market

    sfp has little bearing on land value....iht relief does that

    all jmo

  27. #57
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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    the EU is going to have to change or its finished, if one of the big 3 was to leave i think its game over, i think it will be france or uk most likely to go. doubt the bureaucrats will want anything to change, they are so detached from reality they couldn't believe anyone else could have an opinion different to their own.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Its like for example Greece.
    Its on its arse but still home to the richest people in the world !
    It's all power of b and the muppet brigade , Germany rule the roost

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Stewart View Post
    Perhaps you could enlighten me, If the Euro is such a failure why is the rest of the world quite happy to use it for international trade?
    Because it's a good universal measure of value or medium of exchange but that has little to do with it's value vs. other currencies which are more related to the performance of particularly the financial sector of that economy / union. The fact that you choose to trade in a particular currency says nothing much about that currency. I don't disagree with a lot of your other points though.

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    Re: Farm subsidies if EU pullout

    Quote Originally Posted by Uwork4menow View Post
    The loss of the SFP will mean smaller units struggle far more than the larger ones. Big farmers or those already in the game will scoop up the land far far quicker than the smaller, purely because they have a large base to borrow money against. So the idea that somehow the loss of the SFP would be good for everyone is mental. And I don't believe for one second it would reduce the value of farmland- most land is being sold to people with money from outside the industry who probably have no clue SFP exists.

    You'll kill off a lot of smaller units, maybe some inefficient ones, but don't con yourself it would mean new entrants.
    Maybe, maybe not. I recall seeing an industry expert on TV explaining how the internet and email would be the end of Royal Mail as no letters would be sent again. He didn't foresee the extra room that most sorting offices now have for Amazon packets alone. These things are difficult to predict as they involve macro and micro effects. Land prices would probably fall. Imports are going to look better value. Smaller farmers in the UK are going to be more competitive against bigger ones. Maybe some stagnating subsidy harvesters would be driven out and new innovation would happen that we can't even imagine today.

    Whether it's subsidy to blame or not, there is not enough innovation in UK farming today. Not enough young blood is given a stake, for better or for worse. We need the thrusting young minds of today to be given a chance, even they make a few mistakes along the way because the old man is never going to come up with anything fresh is he? He's probably retracted into more what Grandad did, or is just happy handing his money over to advisors and then blaming the world for his problems. I don't know whether binning subsidy would help that but from looking around, SFP allows farms which just don't make money to trundle along with Mum and Dad in the Merc and the kids slaving for nothing, waiting for them to die. They will probably do the same thing. Nothing at the moment FORCES farming families to look at business performance and the real issues around proper succession planning and honest, if hard conversations. Nothing much anyway. You just collect your SFP. Do a bit here and there and then the kids get it tax free when it's too late and they are already tired and bitter about the whole job.

    If farming and food production is important to the UK then the tax and support systems need to focus on diverse, progressive, environmentally positive and efficient businesses. It needs to get the dead wood out and reward the smart guys, of whatever age. It doesn't do that today as you can inherit 400 acres, do a few ELS jobs and live of it while you drive around in your machines and pretend to be doing something and hope you don't lose all your subsidy in the process. I see it happening.

    If Ukraine wants to subsidise grain, lets buy it off them cheap on the back of EU tax payers and meanwhile produce artisan products to sell to the Chinese and Russians and whoever else at a huge mark up. We are only a tiny island, that model should work. We won't forget how to grow wheat and if the Ukraine stuff gets dear, we'll buy it elsewhere or grow our own again. We either embrace a global economy or we don't.

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