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Thread: mapping the spread of bTB

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    mapping the spread of bTB

    A novel approach to mapping and calculating the rate of spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales




    This paper could be the results of DEFRA research SE 3045

    It is published here
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...77584515000167

    but unfortunately you have to pay to read it , at the moment anyway.

    If it the work I think it is , it could be of great interest, and being DEFRA payed for should be open access !

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    Senior Member matthew's Avatar
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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Quote Originally Posted by FarmerP View Post
    A novel approach to mapping and calculating the rate of spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales




    This paper could be the results of DEFRA research SE 3045

    It is published here
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...77584515000167

    but unfortunately you have to pay to read it , at the moment anyway.

    If it the work I think it is , it could be of great interest, and being DEFRA payed for should be open access !

    Here's what they did:

    http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.as...rojectID=18056

    But why would they want to when the 'gold standard' for infectious disease transmission is already well documented, known for over a century and fulfilled by badgers?

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    I have seen one of the maps from the project showing the local spread of “endemic bovine tuberculosis “on a contour map over a number of years. They were very interesting
    They were down to a very fine scale of a couple of miles, and to my eyes show exactly what you would expect. A clearly defined slow spread across an area. In this case an edge area. There is a large dairy cow market in the area selling a large number of cows, again to my eyes there was no evidence of a “scatter gun” spread from the auction. I await the paper with great interest, and wonder how the writers of the paper will interpret the maps.

    Yes, I agree just covering old ground, as I say I await the maps and their interpretation with interest.

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    Senior Member Joyce's Avatar
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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Quote Originally Posted by FarmerP View Post
    I have seen one of the maps from the project showing the local spread of “endemic bovine tuberculosis “on a contour map over a number of years. They were very interesting
    They were down to a very fine scale of a couple of miles, and to my eyes show exactly what you would expect. A clearly defined slow spread across an area. In this case an edge area. There is a large dairy cow market in the area selling a large number of cows, again to my eyes there was no evidence of a “scatter gun” spread from the auction. I await the paper with great interest, and wonder how the writers of the paper will interpret the maps.

    Yes, I agree just covering old ground, as I say I await the maps and their interpretation with interest.
    Don't be silly, ARA's all know that Tuberculosis is spread by aerosol from cow to cow..... Don't the maps show a fence line where they all line up to breathe on each other, or is it more in the form of a relay race? Pass the baton dear

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    I've only scanned the paper cited above, but here is a bit from the intro.

    "It is evident from time-series maps of the spread of bTB
    produced using annual surveillance data that the major
    mode of spread of endemic bTB in England and Wales is
    by expansion along the edges of existing endemic areas;
    only rarely do isolated outbreaks become new foci of endemic
    disease (for example see Fig. 2 in Defra, 2011). "

    Doesn't suggest to ME that spread of bBT on a lorry is the major problem !

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Told about this DEFRA site this morning.

    http://ibtb.co.uk/

    A map of every bTB case for the last few years, very detailed, but not all that easy to use.
    Shame its England only.
    Not sure if it’s fully launched yet.


    EDIT Above site has vanished ! It was good when I looked. you could see every bTB case in a year , cleared or ongoing, on a google map , able to pin point holdings.
    Last edited by FarmerP; 12-06-15 at 08:43 PM.

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    Senior Member Joyce's Avatar
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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB


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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    In a recent repeat of ''Yes Minister'' in which the Prime Minister was being persuaded to allow building developments in woodland,
    Sir Humphrey advised him that he could over-rule the Badger Protection Society because of common knowledge that badgers helped
    spread Brucellosis in cattle.

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    Senior Member matthew's Avatar
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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Quote Originally Posted by FarmerP View Post
    Told about this DEFRA site this morning.

    http://ibtb.co.uk/

    A map of every bTB case for the last few years, very detailed, but not all that easy to use.
    Shame its England only.
    Not sure if it’s fully launched yet.


    EDIT Above site has vanished ! It was good when I looked. you could see every bTB case in a year , cleared or ongoing, on a google map , able to pin point holdings.


    It was a brief snapshot in a moment of time.
    It wasn't accurate.
    It did not show outbreaks which had ended in 2015.
    It did not show long standing outbreaks, ongoing but not 'new' in 2014 / 15.

    It's now been taken down, until July?

    What was prominent to me, was the spread in new outbreaks (because this appears to be what was being marked as coloured teardrops) across Cumbria and N. Yorkshire, and Eastwards towards Lincolnshire from the 'edge' area, in the spring of 2015.

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Quote Originally Posted by Joyce View Post
    https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...G-TBYP-01e.pdf no 6 is very interesting about treatment of your pet ,if not actually saying what to do.
    Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    6. Management of TB infection in your petThe choice to treat or euthanise (humanely put to sleep) your pet with TB disease is adecision for you to make in consultation with your vet. However, before deciding to attempttreatment of your pet, a number of important factors need to be considered: There are no drugs licensed in the UK for treating animals for TB. The drugs whichwould be used to treat your pet have not passed UK animal-specific safety testingand therefore may not work and may carry a risk to the health of your pet. The treatment requires prolonged use of multiple drugs, the administration of whichcan be very difficult to achieve in pets. This may result in the dosage required forsuccessful treatment not being met and a risk of developing antibiotic resistantstrains of bacteria which is a concern for both human and animal health. Inadequate dosage of your pet may mean that your pet remains infected, oftenwithout any signs of disease. In this circumstance, the risk of infection for humansand other animals in contact with the pet would continue.

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    http://ibtb.co.uk/

    It's back !

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Quote Originally Posted by FarmerP View Post
    http://ibtb.co.uk/

    It's back !
    Well it's correct and up to date for our area

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    Senior Member matthew's Avatar
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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Quote Originally Posted by Joules View Post
    Well it's correct and up to date for our area
    Not here, either with historic 2014/15 breakdowns / TB10s or ongoing restrictions which started years before 2014.

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    In my area it looks OK to me, one or two flags are in odd positions, not at the main farm buildings.
    Not showing a couple of pre 2011 TB cases that were only cleared in 2014 seems odd.


    As I understand things , (which may be wrong)

    The “Beta” right at the top of the ”ibtb” page means the site is still under development.
    ( Tell them about faults, gremlins) ?

    No outbreaks starting pre 2011, ongoing, or cleared, are shown.

    Cleared out breaks are only shown in the start (TB2) year, not shown in any subsequent year, even if they ran for a few years.

    EDIT Pre 2011 outbreaks that are still ongoing seem to have been added to map
    Last edited by FarmerP; 08-07-15 at 08:31 PM. Reason: New info.

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    I appear on the ibtb map several times (http://www.ibtb.co.uk/ ) but live in an area unlikely to see a badger cull for quite some time. I am in favor of the map and look forward to an update. I cannot see that they give much information that is not available on google maps or other bits of the web , other than the fact I have had several bTB breakdowns. If someone was studying the area using google maps, it is easy to see my farm as an obvious cattle farm.

    Really don’t know if I would feel very different if I lived in a cull zone.

    What do others think of the map and its publication on the net. I am aware of very strong opposition from at least one Blog.

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    Senior Member matthew's Avatar
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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Quote Originally Posted by FarmerP View Post
    I appear on the ibtb map several times (http://www.ibtb.co.uk/ ) but live in an area unlikely to see a badger cull for quite some time. I am in favor of the map and look forward to an update. I cannot see that they give much information that is not available on google maps or other bits of the web , other than the fact I have had several bTB breakdowns. If someone was studying the area using google maps, it is easy to see my farm as an obvious cattle farm.

    Really don’t know if I would feel very different if I lived in a cull zone.

    What do others think of the map and its publication on the net. I am aware of very strong opposition from at least one Blog.
    The information the map gives, apart from being shy of around 1500 farms with outbreaks which preceeded the 5 year window, is extremely valuable. To the badgerists who are quoted in FG:

    http://www.fginsight.com/news/activi...g-farmers-5265

    "Stop the Cull’s Jay Tiernan, one of the most prominent figures in the anti-cull movement, told Farmers Guardian activists intended to use them to target farms once culling resumed.

    "From a point of view of advertising where the breakdowns are, you can see on the maps that have gone up so far it would be quite easy to say ’this farm’ because you can zoom right in and can give postcodes for all of them.

    "You could put a crosshair on those maps and reproduce that," said Mr Tiernan, who faces legal costs of £120,000 after losing an appeal against his conviction for breaching the NFU’s injunction protecting farmers in the cull zones.

    "The maps will provide us – and have provided us - with a far better idea of where we should prioritise looking after badger setts, because where there has been a breakdown those farms are far more likely to not only have signed up for a badger cull but more than likely will be out there shooting the badgers themselves."




    So why wasn't its access restricted to those for whom it is said to be of benefit?

    http://bovinetb.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/options.html

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    I see the map has been updated to 30/07/15 and now shows a total of 2508 ongoing bTB case on that date

    There are few pre 2011 cases shown on the map, looking at one cluster of 183 cases I found 5 dated pre 2011. In another cluster I found on dating back to 2002.

    I cannot reconcile the figures against the published DEFRA statistics, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/incidence-of-tuberculosis-tb-in-cattle-in-great-britain
    Incidence of TB in cattle in Great Britain – regional dataset

    as these are a couple of months behind the map, however these statistics for England in May show

    3341 Herds which were not officially TB-free (i.e. herds under movement restrictions with OTF status suspended or withdrawn) due to a TB incident, during the period shown. A herd with more than one incident in the period will be counted more than once.”

    I take this to include herds cleared in May ( TB 10) but no figure is given for this. If I guess at 300 TB 10 issued in May that is an estimated 3041 cases, ongoing at the end of May, compared to 2508 on the map at the end of July.
    I have no idea what accounts for the difference of over 500 ( by my calculation ) cases between the two sources.

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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    A bit more from SE3045 on page 100-101 of
    Surveillance Report for 2014
    Bovine tuberculosis:
    Infection status in cattle
    in GB
    Annual surveillance report
    For the period
    January to December 2014

    https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...e-report14.pdf

    Doesn’t look like spread on a lorry.

    Time to get some bTB testing of badgers inside and out side the endemic areas.,to comply with the 25 year strategy -

    “Badger numbers in the edge
    – We currently know very little on the infection status
    of badgers in the edge area and will work to gather and disseminate information on
    their density and prevalence of TB infection. “

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/229392/pb14020-tb-info-note.pdf

    using DEFRA recently validated PCR test ( SE3280)-
    “When comparing qPCR on faeces taken from trapped badgers with culture, the qPCR assay exhibited a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 30.8-100%) and a specificity of 95.7% (95% CI: 90.3-98.6).”

    http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.as...rojectID=18036

  20. #20
    Senior Member matthew's Avatar
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    Re: mapping the spread of bTB

    Quote Originally Posted by FarmerP View Post
    A bit more from SE3045 on page 100-101 of
    Surveillance Report for 2014
    Bovine tuberculosis:
    Infection status in cattle
    in GB
    Annual surveillance report
    For the period
    January to December 2014

    https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...e-report14.pdf

    Doesn’t look like spread on a lorry.
    It's not. The spoligotype maps show distinct and enduring patches of the same genotype. If cattle had been and are spreading it around the country, and entrenching it in wildlife, then the whole of GB would appear like a kaleidoscope.



    Quote Originally Posted by FarmerP View Post
    Time to get some bTB testing of badgers inside and out side the endemic areas.,to comply with the 25 year strategy -

    “Badger numbers in the edge
    – We currently know very little on the infection status
    of badgers in the edge area and will work to gather and disseminate information on
    their density and prevalence of TB infection. “

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/229392/pb14020-tb-info-note.pdf


    using DEFRA recently validated PCR test ( SE3280)-
    “When comparing qPCR on faeces taken from trapped badgers with culture, the qPCR assay exhibited a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 30.8-100%) and a specificity of 95.7% (95% CI: 90.3-98.6).”


    RTAs and found dead on farmland are usually the precurser to cattle breakdowns at the next test. Surveillance is vital. But only a few vets and certainly not APHA, will collect and test.

    Prof. Wellington's qPCR study, she costed at £208 per 20 samples of fecal material, taken over non consecutive days from latrines. But as far back at 2005, defra were using PCR to screen other farmland mammals for TB. They just forgot to tell us. Or carry on using it productively and proactively. The cynical amongst us would think they didn't actually want to find those infected badgers. (76 per cent in Broadway Worcs. were found to be infected on pm. The usual figure is about 50 per cent in areas of endemic infection - FERA)

    Paper where Defra used PCR is on this link:
    http://bovinetb.blogspot.co.uk/2012/...t-badgers.html

    There's another paper from Warwick using the same info, from the same project (SE3280) now published in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology. Link in this posting:

    http://bovinetb.blogspot.co.uk/2015/...g-silence.html

    So where are we with all this information?
    * We have farmers in at least three potential cull areas which have been refused licenses, but who have mapped their farms, their setts, latrines and badger runs.
    * We have the interactive sat nav route map for activists, labeling where TB outbreaks have been identified in the last 5 years and APHA have details of those long standing breakdowns which the map doesn't show.
    * And now we have the technology to identify the infected groups within those areas, responsible for TB breakdowns.

    Anybody join the dots?

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