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Thread: Brexit reality

  1. #811
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    You didn't answer my question, can your business survive a loss of subsidy and a drop in farm gate prices of 20 - 30%, that's not defeatist, that's realistically looking at the worst case scenario. DEFRA are seriously considering the NZ option for subsidy, and don't expect any protectionism from a conservative govt full of free trade zealots. If we get a hard brexit coupled to a downturn in world commodity prices, the scenario i've outlined is entirely possible, and decent business man should consider contingency planning for such worst case scenarios.

    My business could survive such a downturn, could yours?
    Are you prepared to divulge or at least give the uniformed some pointers to survival?

  2. #812
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by essexpete View Post
    Are you prepared to divulge or at least give the uniformed some pointers to survival?
    My business currently receives very little in the way of subsidy so losing it all together will have a minimal effect, as i sell a niche product i receive a decent price for it, if this price fluctuates, as it has done in the past, i will manage. This is not a system that will suit everyone, but it suits me. I think we all need to consider how our businesses will cope with a worst case scenario from brexit.

    I recently spoke with my advisor re this matter, he's a bit of a nerd on this subject and is well connected with DEFRA, his view is that area payments will definitely be gone post brexit, there may be some production subsidy in the form of grants but they are seriously considering the New Zealand option. when Leadsom addressed the Oxford farming conference she said specifically that though the uk had some of the highest welfare and production standards n the world, they would not restrict imports from countries that did not match these standards as this would be seen as a barrier to free trade.

    ATM the most likely outcome of the election is that May is returned with a larger majority, taking an optimistic view, as she would be less reliant on the fruitcake element of her own part to maintain a narrow majority, this may enable her to strike a conciliatory deal with the rEU which at the very least gives us some sort of transition period where free trade can continue. you have to ask yourself how confident you are that the people we have to negotiate an exit deal are capable of reaching such a compromise, given that they don't appear to grasp the complexities of the problem.

    It's difficult to predict what might happen as there are so many unknown variables, and the people involved are politicians who will say anything to get re elected, and at the moment they are stealing UKIP's act and indulging in petty xenophobia, which seems to be working for them so far. that may change once the election's out of the way, but i wouldn't bank on it, to take what they're saying now at face value, one could assume we'll be crashing out without a deal.

    If that happens we'll be exposed to the vagaries of the world market without EU trade tariffs to protect us, i'm not saying that will happen, but it's not a completely unrealistic scenario, and of it does happen, anyone sitting around waiting for a fat subsidy cheque to bail them out because boris said that's what would happen will be in for a rude awakening.

  3. #813
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    . . .
    If that happens we'll be exposed to the vagaries of the world market without EU trade tariffs to protect us, i'm not saying that will happen, but it's not a completely unrealistic scenario, and of it does happen, anyone sitting around waiting for a fat subsidy cheque to bail them out because boris said that's what would happen will be in for a rude awakening.
    Deal or no deal - if the EU wants what you have to sell, they will buy.

    if the EU wants you to buy their products, they will find a way.

    As for having "duties" similar to the EU, that is a simple piece of legislation with a bunch of regulations (for the actual duties) - the UK used to have its own legislation before the EU and there are many samples available out there (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Barbados, EU, . . .) if it can't find its old legislation in the Archives.

    That isn't a problem and it should be the next UK PM's task - create the legislation then negotiate with the EU.

  4. #814
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironhead View Post
    Deal or no deal - if the EU wants what you have to sell, they will buy.

    if the EU wants you to buy their products, they will find a way.

    As for having "duties" similar to the EU, that is a simple piece of legislation with a bunch of regulations (for the actual duties) - the UK used to have its own legislation before the EU and there are many samples available out there (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Barbados, EU, . . .) if it can't find its old legislation in the Archives.

    That isn't a problem and it should be the next UK PM's task - create the legislation then negotiate with the EU.
    Canada recently completed a trade deal with the EU, it took 7 years to sort out and was nearly scuppered by the Wallons (the untidy part of Belgium). It's not that simple.

  5. #815
    Senior Member skoda's Avatar
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by b slicker View Post
    At least Nigel Farage will still be sitting - or hopefully mostly standing and spouting eloquently - in the European Parliament.

    So that's something to look forward to over the next two years.
    To the tune of a 750,000 pension pot.
    Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.

  6. #816
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    My business currently receives very little in the way of subsidy so losing it all together will have a minimal effect, as i sell a niche product i receive a decent price for it, if this price fluctuates, as it has done in the past, i will manage. This is not a system that will suit everyone, but it suits me. I think we all need to consider how our businesses will cope with a worst case scenario from brexit.

    I recently spoke with my advisor re this matter, he's a bit of a nerd on this subject and is well connected with DEFRA, his view is that area payments will definitely be gone post brexit, there may be some production subsidy in the form of grants but they are seriously considering the New Zealand option. when Leadsom addressed the Oxford farming conference she said specifically that though the uk had some of the highest welfare and production standards n the world, they would not restrict imports from countries that did not match these standards as this would be seen as a barrier to free trade.

    ATM the most likely outcome of the election is that May is returned with a larger majority, taking an optimistic view, as she would be less reliant on the fruitcake element of her own part to maintain a narrow majority, this may enable her to strike a conciliatory deal with the rEU which at the very least gives us some sort of transition period where free trade can continue. you have to ask yourself how confident you are that the people we have to negotiate an exit deal are capable of reaching such a compromise, given that they don't appear to grasp the complexities of the problem.

    It's difficult to predict what might happen as there are so many unknown variables, and the people involved are politicians who will say anything to get re elected, and at the moment they are stealing UKIP's act and indulging in petty xenophobia, which seems to be working for them so far. that may change once the election's out of the way, but i wouldn't bank on it, to take what they're saying now at face value, one could assume we'll be crashing out without a deal.

    If that happens we'll be exposed to the vagaries of the world market without EU trade tariffs to protect us, i'm not saying that will happen, but it's not a completely unrealistic scenario, and of it does happen, anyone sitting around waiting for a fat subsidy cheque to bail them out because boris said that's what would happen will be in for a rude awakening.
    I am very much in agreement with the overall thrust of your post. The single farm payment is doomed, which we all thought anyway, after 2020.
    BBC farming today programme is featuring the environment argument strongly, with groups like RSPB, etc criticising modern agriculture and proposing all sorts of schemes none of which will really replace the original the original historical reason for subsidies which was to support food production.
    There are one or two snags with that, what if Europe continues payments and maintains what has always been the purpose of the common market, that is to capture our market.
    Leadsom is only just another urban politician who knows where most votes come from, the treehugging fraternity who watch spring watch, the chocolate box version of the real world of the countryside. We had ducks and Canada geese breeding on our lake recently, but have found the carcass remains strewn alongside the foxhole the other side of the field. Nature at work I know, but the dear little fox should not chased and torn to pieces like the ducklings and goslings..
    This morning on farming today there were complaints about protected ravens killing lambs and pecking the eyes out of sheep.
    Just to demonstrate what the countryside is up against.
    Jack Caley.
    Rant over!

  7. #817
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    Canada recently completed a trade deal with the EU, it took 7 years to sort out and was nearly scuppered by the Wallons (the untidy part of Belgium). It's not that simple.
    I believe the original NAFTA (Canada-US - Mexico came later) only took 3 years.

    If you don't start somewhere and have something to negotiate with, you will get nowhere.

  8. #818
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironhead View Post
    I believe the original NAFTA (Canada-US - Mexico came later) only took 3 years.

    If you don't start somewhere and have something to negotiate with, you will get nowhere.
    so a deal between two parties took three years, with the EU you're dealing with 27 parties, all ultimately looking after their own interests.

  9. #819
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    so a deal between two parties took three years, with the EU you're dealing with 27 parties, all ultimately looking after their own interests.
    Since you put it that way, 7 x 12 / 27 = 3.11 months per party and 3 x 12 / 1 = 36 months, guess it was more efficient to deal with 27 than 1

  10. #820
    Senior Member b slicker's Avatar
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    You didn't answer my question, can your business survive a loss of subsidy and a drop in farm gate prices of 20 - 30%, that's not defeatist, that's realistically looking at the worst case scenario. DEFRA are seriously considering the NZ option for subsidy, and don't expect any protectionism from a conservative govt full of free trade zealots. If we get a hard brexit coupled to a downturn in world commodity prices, the scenario i've outlined is entirely possible, and decent business man should consider contingency planning for such worst case scenarios.

    My business could survive such a downturn, could yours?
    It'll be a relief to pay a bit less tax. And I knew that there was a good chance that farm support could be significantly reduced post Brexit.

    But that didn't deter me from voting leave - it would have been selfish to have voted otherwise.

  11. #821
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    Re: Brexit reality

    Quote Originally Posted by b slicker View Post
    it would have been selfish to have voted otherwise.
    You voted how you wanted to vote, but don't be making yourself out to be some sort of martyr on my behalf

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