Oh I still think it's a big mistake. However, the decision's been made so we have to move on.
The biggest obstacle we have to a good outcome is the arrogant stupidity of the hard Brexiteers (someone keep an eye on Jack, he's going to need a paper bag to breath into) and the half-truths they're peddling to back up their nonsense.
First of all they should never have started the willy-waving contest about who needs who the most. It only draws attention to the fact that we are in the weaker position. Yes, we have a huge trading deficit with the EU but that's only half the story. To put it in proper context you have to factor in the size of the two economies. UK exports to the EU represent 13% of our economy while EU exports to the UK represent under 4% of their economy. You also have to realise the UK is now a service based economy and we actually have a trading surplus with the EU, in services, of close to £100billion. Much of which could be lost permanently if there's no deal because services can be relocated to the EU much easier than any manufacturing business. In many cases, such as banks, it's just a case of moving jobs to an office within the EU.
There are also thousands of small and medium size businesses that rely on the single market. These are today's entrepreneurs and innovators, the very people you are hoping will get us through this, and they will get the rug pulled from under them. Most of these businesses rely on cash flow and don't have the resilience that a huge asset base brings, such as in farming. Even a small hiccup in trading could cause lasting damage.
Not to worry, though. The rest of the world is apparently queuing up to trade with us. In the real world however, the rest of the world is queuing up to sell us stuff. Translating that into actual trade deals could take between 5 and 10 years, unless we just bend over for them...
Remember when they were touting a trade deal with India as our saviour? Ever wonder why they've gone quiet on that? It's because India want some free movement of people included in the deal. Good luck with that one.
Then there's Trump, and his promise of a 'quick and easy' trade deal. It's abundantly clear he won't sign anything that doesn't shaft the other side. Or if he does, it won't be worth the paper it's printed on. As Canada, Mexico and South Korea are finding out.
The truth is, there's nothing out there that can replace lost EU trade
in a timely enough manner to prevent damage to the economy, other than a new EU deal.
Ah but (I can hear Jack typing) "if we play hardball and walk away they'll come running after us". Do you really think they'll humiliate themselves to that extent? You talk about our pride, do you think they have none? We might be negotiating with Brussels bureaucrats but the outcome still has to be approved by all 27 leaders. Do you really think they'll be able to sell a complete humiliation like that to their own electorates?
Even if they did come after us (and it's a huge if), it's not going to happen right away. It could easily take a year or more of throwing insults back and forward across the channel before one side climbs down. and alot of damage could be done in that time.
I really can't work out if the hard brexiteers actually believe their own nonsense, or if they're just too pig-headed to tone it down for the good of the country.
Jack? Jack? Are you ok?
