Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst ... 234
Results 91 to 117 of 117

Thread: Merchants in denial

  1. #91
    texas pete
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by walter melon View Post
    Typical Gleadell response and you forget you all have company cars, fuel allowances, bank holidays off, every weekend off per year meaning you work 260 ish days before national holidays, probably a pension and health plan, an 8-5 working day blah blah blah.

    If your so envious of us farmers then why dont you go to see a bank manager and ask him to finance a farm purchase for you, or even better stump up some rent for a block of land, buy the farm equipment, grow the crops paying for all that long before you see a return from the crop. Show us fools how its done please.

    The point is you and many other buyers are so disconnected with what is going on, on farms, when it comes to a year like this, you have no idea whats going on around you and merely carry on as normal in your 8 till 5, 5 day a week job.

    Steady on your begining to sound like a dairy farmer.

  2. #92
    Crazybull
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by Grain_Buyer View Post
    but the market and the trade are reacting. Most feed mills will tip to 68kg, a fair few will go to 65kgs, and the odd one will take even lower. the "Trade" will sell low grade feed boats into northern europe, blending 63kg wheat with 68/70kgs. The "Trade" will take low grade into stores to blend and market. The "Trade" will try and help farmers who have low grade, out of spec wheat supply their contracts, and the "Trade" will pay over £200/mt.

    Plus the 'Trade' are on the whole honouring forward sold contract prices despite being sold basis a short local haul and are instead taking it on the chin and taking it on a longer more expensive haul to the ports to get rid of the lower grade stuff. (granted this mostly applies to the midlands far away from the ports).

    Today the difference between a 72kghl average boat and a 68kghl averaging boat on a FOB basis is £10/mt, yet the 'trade' are currently knocking £6 down to 68kghl from 72 (robbing barstewards )

    There is a fair bit of milling quality wheat in western Europe ready for export, however alot is lower protien than normal due to lack of sunshine and higher yields, this stuff will marry up nicely with the 68-70ish kghl high protien wheat milling wheat we have here.

    I doubt very much if the OP's 70 hag wheat will end up in the milling heap as 70hag is pretty much dead (62hag being dead).

    C B

  3. #93
    clover
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by Grain_Buyer View Post
    but the market and the trade are reacting. Most feed mills will tip to 68kg, a fair few will go to 65kgs, and the odd one will take even lower. the "Trade" will sell low grade feed boats into northern europe, blending 63kg wheat with 68/70kgs. The "Trade" will take low grade into stores to blend and market. The "Trade" will try and help farmers who have low grade, out of spec wheat supply their contracts, and the "Trade" will pay over £200/mt.
    Yes.But some farmers,sometimes, need tea and sympathy.Youre not employed as a social worker,but there you are.

  4. #94
    Grain_Buyer
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by clover View Post
    Yes.But some farmers,sometimes, need tea and sympathy.Youre not employed as a social worker,but there you are.
    Fine. Everyone who wants a cup of tea, some cake, and a big man hug, form an orderly que.

  5. #95
    Col the Ox
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    I have followed this thread from its inception. Some of the more recent comments have got me wondering if i should laugh or cry!

    Grian merchants may have their faults, but farmers do also. As a farmer, i obviously want a good, fair price for the grain i produce. Equally, a grain merchant can, and will, only be able to pay the market price. If a merchant basically has your leg up, by offering you a better price, and then deductiong 'allowances' which you suspect are somewhat spurious, then it's a fair bet that you will not do business with that trader again.

    Trading produce, whatever it may be, is a risky business - for both the farmer and the grain trader. I'll bet that it's true that most of us farmers on here have built up a relationship with certain grain traders based upon trust. I know that i have; and i know that those grain traders will always treat me fairly. It is not in their interest to do otherwise. They will want to trade with me in the future, and if i feel that i am being treated badly, then that scenario becomes unlikely; so for heavens sake stop having a go at grain traders. We need them, and they need us. Most of us have a certain respect for those grain traders we deal with, and that means a lot in this day and age!

  6. #96
    Flasheart
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by Col the Ox View Post
    I have followed this thread from its inception. Some of the more recent comments have got me wondering if i should laugh or cry!

    Grian merchants may have their faults, but farmers do also. As a farmer, i obviously want a good, fair price for the grain i produce. Equally, a grain merchant can, and will, only be able to pay the market price. If a merchant basically has your leg up, by offering you a better price, and then deductiong 'allowances' which you suspect are somewhat spurious, then it's a fair bet that you will not do business with that trader again.

    Trading produce, whatever it may be, is a risky business - for both the farmer and the grain trader. I'll bet that it's true that most of us farmers on here have built up a relationship with certain grain traders based upon trust. I know that i have; and i know that those grain traders will always treat me fairly. It is not in their interest to do otherwise. They will want to trade with me in the future, and if i feel that i am being treated badly, then that scenario becomes unlikely; so for heavens sake stop having a go at grain traders. We need them, and they need us. Most of us have a certain respect for those grain traders we deal with, and that means a lot in this day and age!
    Well said!

  7. #97
    crackerjack111
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    +1

    Iím a farmerís son who didnít relish the idea of having to go back to the small family farm and expand (by quite a large portion I might add) in order to farm only to spend my life paying it off. Grain buyers/merchants arenít all completely void of a passion for the guts of farming.
    However, IMO grain buyerís should be well connected to the farmerís year, good or bad Ė and preferably know whatís happening on-farm. Itís what Iíd prefer had I been farming and selling produce that Iíd worked for for the last 12 months. If you feel like youíre treated like a number on a sheet, then (really do) go elsewhere.
    From a professional point of view, the initial mood of the thread, I think traders were (or at least have become over the last week) well aware of the impending harvest. Try not to judge too quickly, as during a call the grain buyer worth his salt, as well as showing a genuine concern, wouldíve also been trying to assess whether your reports are based on a good check over the farm or only fieldís/varieties about to be harvested. Where should he place the said wheat (he doesnít send it just anywhere), was it in a forward contract and if so will it be fulfilled, the distance to other homes, the quality specs etc. We know itís not all plain sailing out in the field, so please donít think that we donít care.
    Also remember that whether the harvest still has potential (see below) or not, the grain trader does not control the prices, or decide whether or not loads come back with a claim.

    Just aside, thereís some mixed information, with the HGCA still telling us all just yesterday, in bold print no less, that itís too early to assess the condition of the UK wheat crop. They must have a slight inkling about it now surely!!? I know many farmers around here that could give their opinion on it quite clearly!! I realise we still have much to cut yet but I donít think there any going to be any surprises of great quality or yield??

  8. #98
    devils advocate
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by walter melon View Post
    Typical Gleadell response and you forget you all have company cars, fuel allowances, bank holidays off, every weekend off per year meaning you work 260 ish days before national holidays, probably a pension and health plan, an 8-5 working day blah blah blah.

    If your so envious of us farmers then why dont you go to see a bank manager and ask him to finance a farm purchase for you, or even better stump up some rent for a block of land, buy the farm equipment, grow the crops paying for all that long before you see a return from the crop. Show us fools how its done please.

    The point is you and many other buyers are so disconnected with what is going on, on farms, when it comes to a year like this, you have no idea whats going on around you and merely carry on as normal in your 8 till 5, 5 day a week job.
    He is even more of a whinger than me.

  9. #99
    Oilseed
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    I cant beleive all this bad mouthing of merchants, if you dont like them dont deal with them. You can sell your own grain directly to the end user and trade futures online. I personally think my merchant is fair and tries his hardest to sort things out when times are difficult.

  10. #100
    ex_pool_manager_ha
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by Oilseed View Post
    I cant beleive all this bad mouthing of merchants, if you dont like them dont deal with them. You can sell your own grain directly to the end user and trade futures online. I personally think my merchant is fair and tries his hardest to sort things out when times are difficult.
    Well said that man!
    Having been in the trade in some quality challenged years, it's damn hard work placing some of the poorest samples. Most farmers are happy to trust the trader(s) that they deal with. I find it quite astonishing that some people who sell forward and then don't have the quality think its the merchants fault that there is a problem. So if they sell forward and the market falls, do they tell the merchant not to worry and to knock a few quid off the contract, to help the buyer?? I don't think so.

    Back to topic, I see that this weeks report from the much maligned Gleadell says that the UK wheat crop may fall to just over 14 million...

  11. #101
    Mayo
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Trading with the end user direct is all well and good but there are times when he just won't want to know unless the price is low enough to tempt him.

  12. #102
    walter melon
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    CNN have got hold of it now. And so it begins ..........

    http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/03/op...ss_mostpopular

  13. #103
    walter melon
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by walter melon View Post
    CNN have got hold of it now. And so it begins ..........

    http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/03/op...ss_mostpopular
    HGCA are also showing signs of accepting this is going to happen. Their latest market report has suggested specific weights are 8% down.

    They also suggest russia harvest is down.

    Sunflower production is down.

    I just think the message is possibly filtering through that food production levels are going to be down. My relatives and friends in the states/canada are saying their wheat harvest was down and australia's is looking to be lower.

    If you look at the Farming Online's harvest results this also shows submitted average wgeat yields so far over 7200ha to be 3.1t/ac which is only 7% down on the normal average but its only for 7200ha. This data will mainly have come from the eastern counties who have had normalish harvests. South West, West, North West, Central and Scotland have hardly started harvesting wheat so I think the national average will end up below 3t/ac once its all done and dusted.

    If you compare the 2012 average so far against the last 4 years FOL results and its actually 15% down. The 7% is over a longer term, but my point is to suddenly drop 15% when we have no intervention stocks and couple that to other poor harvests around the world from the main players could easily see a serious situation.

    Joe public can deal with financial crisis's and rioting in the streets but they WILL NOT do without food.

    A lack of core food products like wheat can have major implications as it slinked to so many other things. such as animal production. Are we going to see less meat on the shelves because livestock farmers have given up due to high feed costs? Or will there production slow down to using different feeds?

    Its all linked .......

  14. #104
    possumbility
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Eastern counties aren't normal, we will average 20% less then our 5 year average.
    although we have done better then i expected.

  15. #105
    Condi
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by walter melon View Post

    A lack of core food products like wheat can have major implications as it slinked to so many other things.
    We - as in the world - are still not short of wheat, no matter how many times you say it......

  16. #106
    walter melon
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by Condi View Post
    We - as in the world - are still not short of wheat, no matter how many times you say it......
    No matter how many times you say it, we will be by next spring which is when I have always said the s**t will hit the fan.

  17. #107
    Jim Bullock
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by Condi View Post
    We - as in the world - are still not short of wheat, no matter how many times you say it......
    You may well be right...but it might not be where it is needed...even in the UK in the past fortnight there have been some very severe shortages...they may have been short-term but they were real... to the point we had a buyer wanting to know if we were going to be combining that day as they needed a load asap...

  18. #108
    honest john
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    I wish my grain was only 15% down on 4 year ave.
    No names but when you cant get 29 ton on a lorry its bad. And this in the bread basket in the east.
    I know there are some areas with near ave yeilds parts of Kent Suffolk Essex Sussex a small % of the total in UK.

  19. #109
    yellow belly
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by Condi View Post
    We - as in the world - are still not short of wheat, no matter how many times you say it......
    a poor world harvest next year will see very serious shortages and not enough stocks to keep supplies running
    many exporters will not export leaving importing countrys with no reserves with nowhere to buy their food needs

    canada now reporting low yealds

  20. #110
    hilly bill
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by yellow belly View Post
    a poor world harvest next year will see very serious shortages and not enough stocks to keep supplies running
    many exporters will not export leaving importing countrys with no reserves with nowhere to buy their food needs

    canada now reporting low yealds
    Thats thing though isnt it, next year will probably bring bumper crops.

  21. #111
    Fen lad
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by hilly bill View Post
    Thats thing though isnt it, next year will probably bring bumper crops.

    May or may not - the market now will build the potential risks of both scenarios occuring into futures markets pricing of 2013 grains, and adjust world harvest 2013 yields and stocks based on information as the year progresses - so it will likely be yet another roller coaster market for futures prices in next 11 months until northern hemosphere 2013 wheat harvest is gathered in.

  22. #112
    Grain_Buyer
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Everything which is fact, is already factored into the market price, everything which might happen is speculation, and stuff which is totally unknown is just a wild punt. Most merchants base their prices on what is "known". One of the best traders I've worked with used to say, "I can tell you exactly what happened yesterday, I've got a good idea what's going to happen today, I've got a fair idea of what might happen next week, but after that, don't bother asking me!"

  23. #113
    Brisel
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by Grain_Buyer View Post
    Everything which is fact, is already factored into the market price, everything which might happen is speculation, and stuff which is totally unknown is just a wild punt. Most merchants base their prices on what is "known". One of the best traders I've worked with used to say, "I can tell you exactly what happened yesterday, I've got a good idea what's going to happen today, I've got a fair idea of what might happen next week, but after that, don't bother asking me!"
    Damn right. If we all knew what the future would bring, then we wouldn't have to mess about with farming/grain trading/milling etc would we? The next months' worth of Euro lottery numbers, Dow Jones & FTSE spreads would do for me.

    In the mean time...

  24. #114
    walter melon
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Theres to many factors now pointing towards a serious food shortage worldwide.

  25. #115
    kpa
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    I'm told french trucks have been streaming through Kent with loads of high bushel weight but lowish protein wheat presumably to blend with our high protein low bushel weight.

    The further East you go in Europe the better the quality. With the low value Euro will we see the peaks of two years ago?

  26. #116
    czechmate
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    Quote Originally Posted by kpa View Post
    I'm told french trucks have been streaming through Kent with loads of high bushel weight but lowish protein wheat presumably to blend with our high protein low bushel weight.

    The further East you go in Europe the better the quality. With the low value Euro will we see the peaks of two years ago?

    Sounds like we, (British Farmers) should be talking directly with French farmers

  27. #117
    Mayo
    Guest

    Re: Merchants in denial

    I think if we get a dodgy southern hemisphere harvest, all bets are off...

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •