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Thread: So how serious are things?

  1. #1
    Willscale
    Guest

    So how serious are things?

    Rape is clinging on here by its fingertips, winter barley has drowned, 70% of WW is ok, the rest is recently sown and its now baltic and soaking so I'll feel lucky if it beats the slug hollowing and waterlogging to emerge by xmas looking nice.

    I know plenty have sown and plenty have not sown and I'm only thinking of my patch but I really am starting to wonder is there going to be enough stuff to go around. If prices rose by 100/t for next years crops I seriously don't think that would be excessive.

    An thoughts?

  2. #2
    Derky
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    I think traders ringing up offering 170 for 2013 need to get real, there will be a serious shortage I would be surprised if we get much more in the ground.

  3. #3
    shakerator
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    not that bad around here in blackgrassland.

    could you imagine the blackgrass if we'd have had an autumn like last year?

    this enforced delay in drilling/ switch to spring cropping is agronomically necessary in many cases.

    Although every agronomist's report i read seem's to have a strong aversion to spring cropping..... i wonder why

    if we have a wet winter i will start sweating.

  4. #4
    Young apprentice
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by Derky View Post
    I think traders ringing up offering 170 for 2013 need to get real, there will be a serious shortage I would be surprised if we get much more in the ground.
    Been offered 185 November 2013 wheat here.

    YA

  5. #5
    axial1680
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Very I would think, I reckon as it stands Country wide there will be a 40% reasonable crop from this back end if we are lucky. Have never known it so bad all over the country. And whats to say there will be any improvement in the weather for spring drilling! Also think traders will start to panic when they start buying wheat in the New Year and theres nothing like what they thought there was on farms. I think it will be over 200 for next October by Easter, I may be very wrong but my eyes when driving about arn't decieveing me. Dispite us being in a world market theres a good 10-20 UK variation when they want it to be.
    Paul

  6. #6
    Derky
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by Young apprentice View Post
    Been offered 185 November 2013 wheat here.

    YA
    Needs a 2 in front

  7. #7
    Krampeman
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Not to bad for us at the moment but very concerned about slugs over the winter. Purposely didn't plant any osr so that removes that burden many of you are facing with regards to small plants, slugs, pigeons and cooling temperatures.

    Winter Barley all in but some headlands we rolled look poor at the moment. Might have to redrill them with spring barley in feb but no more than 8%.

    Winter Wheat 85% planted and all chitted up in rows looking good to ok. Again rolled headlands may need to be replanted and would equate to no more than 2%. The last 15% to be planted is going in no matter what between now and the end of Jan. Bit of Solstice to finish off and then the rest is Xi19.

    I want wheat in the ground because I'd rather grow 2.5-3.0t of that at 250/t than any spring crops because there will be so many acres of spring crops next year.

    By far my biggest cock up is rolling.

  8. #8
    AlfM
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krampeman View Post
    Not to bad for us at the moment but very concerned about slugs over the winter. Purposely didn't plant any osr so that removes that burden many of you are facing with regards to small plants, slugs, pigeons and cooling temperatures.

    Winter Barley all in but some headlands we rolled look poor at the moment. Might have to redrill them with spring barley in feb but no more than 8%.

    Winter Wheat 85% planted and all chitted up in rows looking good to ok. Again rolled headlands may need to be replanted and would equate to no more than 2%. The last 15% to be planted is going in no matter what between now and the end of Jan. Bit of Solstice to finish off and then the rest is Xi19.

    I want wheat in the ground because I'd rather grow 2.5-3.0t of that at 250/t than any spring crops because there will be so many acres of spring crops next year.

    By far my biggest cock up is rolling.
    I suspect some of our neighbours must think the new sprayer is coming with 12 m booms, as we look like we've tramlined at that with nothing growing in the roll tractor wheelings. I think i have to balance that loss, with any benefit i might be gaining against the slugs for having a consolidated seedbed. Obviously i'll never really know though.

  9. #9
    banana bar
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krampeman View Post
    Not to bad for us at the moment but very concerned about slugs over the winter. Purposely didn't plant any osr so that removes that burden many of you are facing with regards to small plants, slugs, pigeons and cooling temperatures.

    Winter Barley all in but some headlands we rolled look poor at the moment. Might have to redrill them with spring barley in feb but no more than 8%.

    Winter Wheat 85% planted and all chitted up in rows looking good to ok. Again rolled headlands may need to be replanted and would equate to no more than 2%. The last 15% to be planted is going in no matter what between now and the end of Jan. Bit of Solstice to finish off and then the rest is Xi19.

    I want wheat in the ground because I'd rather grow 2.5-3.0t of that at 250/t than any spring crops because there will be so many acres of spring crops next year.

    By far my biggest cock up is rolling.
    I thought it was just me regretting some of the rolling!

    BB

  10. #10
    Martin H
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Same here with the rolling, just wish i'd been a bit more accurate then I could have gone in the same "tramlines" with the pre-em as currently that has left another track.....
    That said i have one or two misses with the rolls and there is no crop at all!
    last bit of wheat went in 3 weeks ago yesterday and is up in rows ok but not in the roller tractor marks, do you think it will come up?

    on slug patrol the other morning and when walking over one field you couldnt put my wellie down without stepping on a slug and I dont have that biga feet!

  11. #11
    Col the Ox
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Having a chat with a young lady from a fairly large grain company only this afternoon, and i said that i've now seen many years and many seasons, but i cannot ever remember one as persistantly wet as this year. There may have been wetter years, and we won't know that until this year closes, but in a wet year you do usually get some dry spells in between the wet. This has hardly happened at all this year. It seems as if it is almost impossible to string two dry days together. Coupled with that, there really was no summer to speak of at all. The land never did warm up, and i believe that it may have played a part in the slow emergence of autumn sown crops.

    I am as yet unsure about my oilseed rape, and its ability to survive the winter. The plants are all over the place, which makes it practically impossible to know when and what to spray, assuming it ever dries enough to allow me to spray!

    The wheat is just emerging, and seems to be ok after a good dollop of slug pellets - something, incidentally, i don't usually have to do here.

    Sugar beet two thirds lifted, but i am unsure as to whether i shall get the land sown with wheat. It will soon be 'make my mind up' time concerning the oilseed rape, (i am hoping that it will pull through) and if i should attempt to sow any more wheat. The one saving grace i have is that i already grow spring barley, and can increase the acreage if necessary - assuming i can get the seed!

  12. #12
    czechmate
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    I am frankly ashamed of the farm and wonder where next harvest is coming from. Just chatting with my agronomist who has been around today. He said his day had been very bad and was pleased to have finished at my place to cheer him up. What the hell are the other farms like then? But as you drive around here you can barely see a good field, in fact, 90% of fields, you wonder what actually is supposed to be growing there.
    Looks serious to me, although I am past caring

  13. #13
    Seat Right Back
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    my agronomist phoned up the other day and told me that he thought that I might be better off in my state of affairs [ 1 acre barley in , quite a few to plant yet ] , he reckoned he had a day of going around writing crops off after having spent a bit of money allready on slug control , and after todays rain anything planted at the weekend is going to struggle ,

    still hopefull to get a chunk of wheat in yet , still got 2 months , could have a dry cold spell ,


    might even get a speck of dust , ,,,,,, whats that saying about a speck of dust

  14. #14
    JCB_3230
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krampeman View Post
    Not to bad for us at the moment but very concerned about slugs over the winter. Purposely didn't plant any osr so that removes that burden many of you are facing with regards to small plants, slugs, pigeons and cooling temperatures.

    Winter Barley all in but some headlands we rolled look poor at the moment. Might have to redrill them with spring barley in feb but no more than 8%.

    Winter Wheat 85% planted and all chitted up in rows looking good to ok. Again rolled headlands may need to be replanted and would equate to no more than 2%. The last 15% to be planted is going in no matter what between now and the end of Jan. Bit of Solstice to finish off and then the rest is Xi19.

    I want wheat in the ground because I'd rather grow 2.5-3.0t of that at 250/t than any spring crops because there will be so many acres of spring crops next year.

    By far my biggest cock up is rolling.
    I am the reverse, bits missed with rolls have not grown...

  15. #15
    Renaultman
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by czechmate View Post
    I am frankly ashamed of the farm and wonder where next harvest is coming from. Just chatting with my agronomist who has been around today. He said his day had been very bad and was pleased to have finished at my place to cheer him up. What the hell are the other farms like then? But as you drive around here you can barely see a good field, in fact, 90% of fields, you wonder what actually is supposed to be growing there.
    Looks serious to me, although I am past caring
    I'm glad you've said that, as that is how I feel. Everything just looks dirty, brown and drab.

  16. #16
    Nearly
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    I'm thinking the 35 acres which still has the straw sat on it, might be the most profitable option next year!
    Decided to spray it off and let the neighbour drown it in cowmuck next summer. P and K index <1, just taken it back 'in hand'


  17. #17
    JCB_3230
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Things are dire.. the harvest was rubbish with the poorest yields for 35 years, the lowest bushels in living memory.. and now we have poor or no crops for 2013 harvest.. wheat crops round here that have been drilled are waterlogged.. most rape is so small.. it's unlikely to make it.. I have used more slug pellets this year.. than the last 30 added together.. we don't normally need them.. I hope sfp is paid on 1st Dec... income from cereals is sluggish... at best

  18. #18
    JCB_3230
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by Renaultman View Post
    I'm glad you've said that, as that is how I feel. Everything just looks dirty, brown and drab.
    Some days I am also past caring.. too ... hardly surprising

  19. #19
    Rafterman
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by JCB_3230 View Post
    Some days I am also past caring.. too ... hardly surprising
    You're not on Your own.

  20. #20
    Neddy Flanders
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by czechmate View Post
    I am frankly ashamed of the farm and wonder where next harvest is coming from. Just chatting with my agronomist who has been around today. He said his day had been very bad and was pleased to have finished at my place to cheer him up. What the hell are the other farms like then? But as you drive around here you can barely see a good field, in fact, 90% of fields, you wonder what actually is supposed to be growing there.
    Looks serious to me, although I am past caring
    This is the best post I've seen in the last month. So true. Exactly how I feel

  21. #21
    Farmer T
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Around this way OSR is looking around 75% gone. Where it came the slugs just haven't stopped no matter what has been put on them, the wet cold soils have meant the lazy old tap root hasn't pushed on.

    The cereals that were drilled a month are through but really struggling after the rain in the last week. A cold snap could mean trouble- although at least it would slow the slugs down. If you haven't got the crop in around here and you can't plough dry up you've got no chance.

    Worst I've seen in my time

  22. #22
    culphim78
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Most winter crops up these parts are looking the best I've seen for years it changes if you go south of Aberdeen though I was sowing wheat for a neighbour all last week some not great but some was the best autumn seedbeds I've sown so not all doom and gloom

  23. #23
    tw15
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Same down here in dorset rain rain and more rain and then the slugs ,they are everywhere . Rape is all over the place regarding growth stages august drilled is ok anything from sept drillings small and still getting hammered by slugs or pigeons .Wheat crops onthe chalk are coming through okish but any on clay ground thats been mauld in is on the whole looking a mess .Wouldnt want to be a farmer this year with high borrowings and rent and lots on finance. This year could well push some over the edge thats for sure.

  24. #24
    static
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by Farmer T View Post
    Worst I've seen in my time
    Yes. It is very bad. Stood water now in the wheelings made from slug pelleting. This is not a joke. I have revised my budgets on the basis of nil crop income. In my short time (started 2004) I have seen a lot of mud, but in none of those years have we ever had to fallow / write off as much as now. And any rape previously written off has always managed to be redrilled with wheat.

    That being said, there is light land and free-draining limestone around here that is being worked up and drilled with the usual ease. In a local machinery dealers today, the chat was would you rather have paid 10k for better land or 5k for the usual clart. I think with perspective, a big area of clart better as this is a real freak season, but as a predominatly short-FBT tenant, I cant afford another like this for a good long while.

  25. #25
    honest john
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    It could be the best year yet to date.
    Wheat harvest poor but some better prices will help.
    Sugar Beet OK. Although mostly still to harvest.
    Potatoes IF we get them all could make it my best year to date.
    Selling for more than ever before and its still Harvest time.
    Wheat looking ok no pellets used.

    Still a lot to do with Maize and Beet and Pots to harvest.
    November will be a key month for us.

  26. #26
    yellow belly
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    i was not in th euk in the autumn of 1987 which was a dificult autumn a lot of beans planted in bad conditions

    2000 was also a difficult autumn when i had 50% setaside after planting some spring barley to get up to 50% planted

    this autumn is worse and now it looks like there will be no more planted till spring
    the most profitable fields look to be in stubble now as they have cost less

    20 mm since last night all the ditches and streams now full and waterlogged field everywhere

    it is now very serious next year the uk will be a big importer of wheat the price will be set by the import price 170 to 250 ,any higher and the livestock industry will de stock

  27. #27
    harrisonion
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    It's not looking very pretty here.

    Finished the bulk of the potato harvest yesterday, just needed one more dry day to try and get about an acre on the heaviest clay field we have, but the 10mm we had last night had put a stop to that. I really don't like leaving it, but the decision to leave it has had to be made.

    We've got no wheat in, nor the winter barley, nothing ploughed, none of the ex potato fields subsoiled ( they look like ww1 battle fields) all the potato fields were supposed to be coming WW.

    Only had one S beet field lifted back in September. Local haulier says they just don't give him enough permits.

    I sprayed all the stumbles with round-up the weekend of the 21st and it looks like I haven't sprayed them.
    Got water laying on the stubble ( don't think I've ever seen that before) probably from the combine wheelings?

    On the bright side, potatoes look like they should make us some profit. Hopefully make up for the last poor season, where they only broke even.Thats if they store ok, I've never put so much soil in the shed.

  28. #28
    Renaultman
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nearly View Post
    I'm thinking the 35 acres which still has the straw sat on it, might be the most profitable option next year!
    Decided to spray it off and let the neighbour drown it in cowmuck next summer. P and K index <1, just taken it back 'in hand'

    Must be nice to have a neighbour with cowmuck
    Many years ago, when I had more hair and less belly, I helped my neighbour bale straw in January. I remember him joking about him being the 1st to finish baling that year.

  29. #29
    gone up the hill
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Quote Originally Posted by shakerator View Post
    not that bad around here in blackgrassland.

    could you imagine the blackgrass if we'd have had an autumn like last year?

    this enforced delay in drilling/ switch to spring cropping is agronomically necessary in many cases.

    Although every agronomist's report i read seem's to have a strong aversion to spring cropping..... i wonder why

    if we have a wet winter i will start sweating.
    GOOD GOD reading this thread is enough to drive anyone to drink

    ALL IS NOT LOST... its only nov 1st after all.. plenty of time for things to turn around.. main thing is to get a good seedbed regardless of the month you drill.. personally nothing in but not worried,( will put in 20% of the planned winter barley acreage in feb and will hopefully will get 30% of the wheat drilled by 1st dec, the rest will go into spring barley in feb/march, it will easily average 3t/acre on this land if drilled early enough and the wheat will only average 3.6t/acre drilled in oct so what i will save on sprays/fert will be more than compensated by a small yield drop..

    People are saying spring crops will be a waste of time as too many will be planted.. yea this may be the case in a normal year but not this year i feel as most of what has been planted wont yield that well + reserves will be low after this crap harvest so i personally reckon the trade will be crying out for anything they can get their hands on this time next year..

    Onwards and upwards..

  30. #30
    Hillfarmer
    Guest

    Re: So how serious are things?

    Not that bad around here!, still would not want another year like it though.
    This year has certainly shown up the weaknesses in some farming systems(locally)!
    And whats the betting they will still clamber over each other to pay huge rents, that is until the bank says enough is enough!

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