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Thread: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

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    Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Title says it all & 2.43? for manufacturing so the rest of you look forward to more cuts as the sheep will follow the leader!!!

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by Greenslades View Post
    Title says it all & 2.43? for manufacturing so the rest of you look forward to more cuts as the sheep will follow the leader!!!
    It's frightening just how quickly it's dropping!
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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by Greenslades View Post
    Title says it all & 2.43? for manufacturing so the rest of you look forward to more cuts as the sheep will follow the leader!!!
    As long as the sheep don't follow the milk i'll be happy!!!!

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Does anyone know how much milk is imported into the UK and the means/logistics of doing so?

    Surely this would be a good target for any protest (with a big "STOP UNKNOWN NON FARM ASSURED MILK") banner or something like that, with the subliminal message that you are helping the public in some way!

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by Einstien View Post
    Does anyone know how much milk is imported into the UK and the means/logistics of doing so?
    Defra has figures for UK supplies of milk products (includes production and trade statistics) https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...land-and-wales
    but it's a ODS file that I can't seem to open.


    Other milk production statistics of interest ...
    https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...uction-figures
    https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...sition-of-milk
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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by Einstien View Post
    Does anyone know how much milk is imported into the UK and the means/logistics of doing so?

    Surely this would be a good target for any protest (with a big "STOP UNKNOWN NON FARM ASSURED MILK") banner or something like that, with the subliminal message that you are helping the public in some way!
    most dairy products that enter the UK are products not raw milk. don't forget we export raw milk/products too are you happy to have those stopped too?

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by lazy farmer View Post
    most dairy products that enter the UK are products not raw milk. don't forget we export raw milk/products too are you happy to have those stopped too?
    I am guessing we are a massive net importer, so yes, absolutely fine!!!!

    Plus, wouldn't be anything unusual another country binning our goods, just to protect their market.... Name a country that hasn't done this to us at some point!! (I realise for good reason on some occasions)

    Joking aside, I would want to see the stats, but can't believe we export more raw milk then we import!

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Here are the Import/Export figures:

    http://www.dairyco.org.uk/market-inf.../#.VKo5FKNyaUk

    Cheese & Butter are our main imports & this may be something to do with lack of processing capacity I would have thought.
    I believe we are something like 80% self sufficient in dairy products but this is falling and a weak euro will make importing more attractive in the short term.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Surely people can't go on producing milk at these prices?

    What's happening with prices in the rest of Europe? Surely if the French were suffering like this the streets of paris would be full of burning sheep by now?

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    Surely people can't go on producing milk at these prices?

    What's happening with prices in the rest of Europe? Surely if the French were suffering like this the streets of paris would be full of burning sheep by now?
    Don't have much choice in truth and the mitigation is to put on more cows which creates a vicious circle.

    Baltic State countries are getting less than 13ppl equivalent due to the Russian import ban as that is their major (only?) market.

    I also believe that there is an element of profiteering by processors as it is easy to blame "Global climates" and lop another 1-2ppl off - they do it on petrol forecourts so why not with a fragile commodity that MUST have a home????

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by Bald Rick View Post
    Don't have much choice in truth and the mitigation is to put on more cows which creates a vicious circle.

    Baltic State countries are getting less than 13ppl equivalent due to the Russian import ban as that is their major (only?) market.

    I also believe that there is an element of profiteering by processors as it is easy to blame "Global climates" and lop another 1-2ppl off - they do it on petrol forecourts so why not with a fragile commodity that MUST have a home????
    Here in Northern Ireland producer prices for November milk are about 22/23p with December likely to be 20/21 probably falling below 20 for Jan/Feb milk!

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    Surely people can't go on producing milk at these prices?
    Absolutely right. In the short term, most of us will, but if it persists at these levels, we'll soon start to drop off the perch.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by DairyFarmer111 View Post
    Absolutely right. In the short term, most of us will, but if it persists at these levels, we'll soon start to drop off the perch.
    I'm thinking that those who have invested in infrastructure and expansion plans etc and have debts to service simply won't be able to carry on at these prices indefinitely, and even those without significant debt will only be prepared to work 7 days a week for nothing for so long. as people leave the industry, much knowledge and expertise built up over generations is lost for good. So what's the endgame here. mass exodus from dairying? will there be anything left for those who manage to hang on of is this it for the foreseeable future?

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Ultimately I just cannot see the industry sticking this for much longer before there is near anarchy. At this level it will be the milk from grazing lot, the M & S suppliers and a few cheese or ice cream makers left- say 20% of producers as it stands?

    It is getting faintly ridiculous and I am surprised there have not been more protests. If any do appear in the pipeline, can the Somerset contingent here please PM me (in complete confidence) to let me know ASAP so I can make arrangements to attend?

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by Uwork4menow View Post
    Ultimately I just cannot see the industry sticking this for much longer before there is near anarchy. At this level it will be the milk from grazing lot, the M & S suppliers and a few cheese or ice cream makers left- say 20% of producers as it stands?

    It is getting faintly ridiculous and I am surprised there have not been more protests. If any do appear in the pipeline, can the Somerset contingent here please PM me (in complete confidence) to let me know ASAP so I can make arrangements to attend?
    There did seem to be quit a divisive attitude to the protests and FFA on twitter that puzzled me to a degree, some anonymous accounts set up apparently specifically to attack FFA etc. I do wonder what the agenda is here, without putting the tin foil hat on, i notice a number of commentators talking the price down further still, i can't help wondering who stands to gain from all this.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by matbrojoe View Post
    I'm thinking that those who have invested in infrastructure and expansion plans etc and have debts to service simply won't be able to carry on at these prices indefinitely, and even those without significant debt will only be prepared to work 7 days a week for nothing for so long. as people leave the industry, much knowledge and expertise built up over generations is lost for good. So what's the endgame here. mass exodus from dairying? will there be anything left for those who manage to hang on of is this it for the foreseeable future?

    dairy farming in the uk isn't going to completely collapse, a few farmers will stop then supply/demand will re-adjust and the prices will go back up.
    farmers should'nt be struggling yet cos we've had record prices. bank balances should be looking quite good. what i would be worried about is the strengh of the dairy company you sell your milk to, some are obviously struggling more than others. or if your on a short notice contract which some producers wanted only a year or so ago. now they can get rid of you short notice (how the tide has changed). it is going to be tough but farmers are a very resilient bunch and most will find a way to get through. we just got to keep our hands in our pockets like the beef and sheep guys.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by simplesimon View Post
    dairy farming in the uk isn't going to completely collapse, a few farmers will stop then supply/demand will re-adjust and the prices will go back up.
    farmers should'nt be struggling yet cos we've had record prices. bank balances should be looking quite good. what i would be worried about is the strengh of the dairy company you sell your milk to, some are obviously struggling more than others. or if your on a short notice contract which some producers wanted only a year or so ago. now they can get rid of you short notice (how the tide has changed). it is going to be tough but farmers are a very resilient bunch and most will find a way to get through. we just got to keep our hands in our pockets like the beef and sheep guys.
    At last somebody talking some sense. perhaps the surplus from the high prices could have been invested better in cost saving areas rather than shiny kit and if you weren't making a surplus then you should get out before the bank makes you.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by simplesimon View Post
    dairy farming in the uk isn't going to completely collapse, a few farmers will stop then supply/demand will re-adjust and the prices will go back up.
    farmers should'nt be struggling yet cos we've had record prices. bank balances should be looking quite good. what i would be worried about is the strengh of the dairy company you sell your milk to, some are obviously struggling more than others. or if your on a short notice contract which some producers wanted only a year or so ago. now they can get rid of you short notice (how the tide has changed). it is going to be tough but farmers are a very resilient bunch and most will find a way to get through. we just got to keep our hands in our pockets like the beef and sheep guys.
    +1

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    I don't really agree with some of that. For me, bank balance is not the issue. I work on a month to month basis with my costs. It doesn't matter what the cash surplus was six months ago, because I keep the account in a lean state unless I'm leaving a sum for a planned spend. If it comes to the point where the tanker is taking money with it rather than leaving profit, then where is that money going to come from? Should we be happy to subsidise loss making production with historical cash, or should we subsidise it from a bank overdraft? In regular manufacturing companies, a production line will just be mothballed if it goes in the red, for as long as it takes for the number to add up again. A dairy enterprise has to viewed differently as nothing can be mothballed. It doesn't make sense to start pouring money into a black hole without a return to profit in sight.

    I think its not the right thing for the industry to make light of the situation by suggesting we'd be prepared to fund lossmaking production. Because guess what, the retailers would be more than happy to let us do it, and laugh at us behind our backs.

    Id also bet that strength of opinions are directly linked to price received at the moment in time. My price will be leading most of yours, so i am already on twenty point something base for Decembers milk, likely dropping below twenty for the month we're now in. The line you are taking will harden when your price starts with a one friends!

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by DairyFarmer111 View Post
    I don't really agree with some of that. For me, bank balance is not the issue. I work on a month to month basis with my costs. It doesn't matter what the cash surplus was six months ago, because I keep the account in a lean state unless I'm leaving a sum for a planned spend. If it comes to the point where the tanker is taking money with it rather than leaving profit, then where is that money going to come from? Should we be happy to subsidise loss making production with historical cash, or should we subsidise it from a bank overdraft? In regular manufacturing companies, a production line will just be mothballed if it goes in the red, for as long as it takes for the number to add up again. A dairy enterprise has to viewed differently as nothing can be mothballed. It doesn't make sense to start pouring money into a black hole without a return to profit in sight.

    I think its not the right thing for the industry to make light of the situation by suggesting we'd be prepared to fund lossmaking production. Because guess what, the retailers would be more than happy to let us do it, and laugh at us behind our backs.

    Id also bet that strength of opinions are directly linked to price received at the moment in time. My price will be leading most of yours, so i am already on twenty point something base for Decembers milk, likely dropping below twenty for the month we're now in. The line you are taking will harden when your price starts with a one friends!
    i dont disagree with your post but funding a loss making enterprise we must do. even we force milk price up somehow wheres the money to pay milk. its a global problem wether man made or polically motivated. we simply must make do. we cant simply stop milking,we cant dump milk really as the market wont support a higher milk price short term. keep your heads down and as someone said your hands in your pocket, biggest problem is not only milk price but all the dd. i know farms with 100 cows and a 65k loader shovel. it is the nature of the beast. its a cycle,been through it time and time again

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by DairyFarmer111 View Post
    I don't really agree with some of that. For me, bank balance is not the issue. I work on a month to month basis with my costs. It doesn't matter what the cash surplus was six months ago, because I keep the account in a lean state unless I'm leaving a sum for a planned spend. If it comes to the point where the tanker is taking money with it rather than leaving profit, then where is that money going to come from? Should we be happy to subsidise loss making production with historical cash, or should we subsidise it from a bank overdraft? In regular manufacturing companies, a production line will just be mothballed if it goes in the red, for as long as it takes for the number to add up again. A dairy enterprise has to viewed differently as nothing can be mothballed. It doesn't make sense to start pouring money into a black hole without a return to profit in sight.

    I think its not the right thing for the industry to make light of the situation by suggesting we'd be prepared to fund lossmaking production. Because guess what, the retailers would be more than happy to let us do it, and laugh at us behind our backs.

    Id also bet that strength of opinions are directly linked to price received at the moment in time. My price will be leading most of yours, so i am already on twenty point something base for Decembers milk, likely dropping below twenty for the month we're now in. The line you are taking will harden when your price starts with a one friends!
    I personally think the main belief is that things will get better sooner rather than later. But I am looking at 18 months+ before this job levels out. The Russian trade ban will stay a good 6 months yet so that market is closed & as we all know the NZ boys will start soon so that will just add to the back log. What happens to that surplus? Probably smp, cheese & the such to turn a short life product into something that can be stored. Then that just sits around waiting to be released onto the market keeping prices down as it hits.

    I also agree that the price received is altering views on what is & what's not sustainable. This industry, as I have said before, is a industry of single businesses looking for their own benefit & not that of the industry as a whole. So while ever there is a massive price difference, those at the top will not worry about those at the bottom. Just view those businesses as the ones who should leave & make the overproduction disappear so that they who are left can enjoy a better price & expand again. It's the nature of the beast

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by zsnotdead View Post
    i dont disagree with your post but funding a loss making enterprise we must do. even we force milk price up somehow wheres the money to pay milk. its a global problem wether man made or polically motivated. we simply must make do. we cant simply stop milking,we cant dump milk really as the market wont support a higher milk price short term. keep your heads down and as someone said your hands in your pocket, biggest problem is not only milk price but all the dd. i know farms with 100 cows and a 65k loader shovel. it is the nature of the beast. its a cycle,been through it time and time again
    Quite agree with you there. Milk is still profitable at 20p, just, if you only had to pay the meal, vet, ai, electric etc. The problem this time is the amount of money that has been borrowed over the last few, resulting in large repayments that must be made. Those are the ones that are going to struggle and already 1 or 2 round hare are beginning to squeal. Remember we've really only had 3/4 poor months so the worst is still to come.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    It's true that the majority of us will slog away at the job until it eventually rights itself.

    Your suggestion of profit at twenty p though is not realistic IMO. Dear help us if the supermarket buyer reads that, and that's exactly what I'm talking about. I don't think it's strategically smart to publish things like that. Now, we could argue here all night about what constitutes a cost of production, and we'd all log off without any agreement. But it's a cold fact that paying basic costs like feed, the vet, hired labour, the electric etc is far from covering all the costs of a sustainable and growing business, pay for our skilled inputs, pay tax and create a profit that you can look at in sitting in your personal bank account/pension/ISA.

    What we all can, and will do, is halt planned maintenance and reinvestment as the first casualty. Then we will tighten up on our drawings, which many farmers are able to do if they live in an owned outright farmhouse. We will also be able to say at the end of the year that we didn't add much to our pension either. And when the price rises again, we will have to spend quite heavily to bring the reinvestment back up to where it should be. That will cost many pence per litre in those years. It's also wise to note that, while we are heading back to milk prices of the kind we got in the first 2/3s of the noughties, we are paying about double for compound fertiliser, a tad less than double for nuts, probably double for land rent and a tad under double for contact silage harvesting. Be serious.

    Ask any dairy consultant who does farm costings til you hear what a real range of costs is. Ironically, the guy wearing up on retirement, who has is quite happy to run the assets down on the farm (as a means of actually subsidising his production cost) and who owns his house, who isn't bothered about foreign holidays, who's kids are grown up and doesn't have any interest in the land for sale across the road, will ride it the best.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    I still remember during one of the last slumps in the price of milk a farmer that told me he could produce milk for 16p per litre. he was right , he could, but he didn't do it for long and sold his cows.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by DairyFarmer111 View Post
    I don't really agree with some of that. For me, bank balance is not the issue. I work on a month to month basis with my costs. It doesn't matter what the cash surplus was six months ago, because I keep the account in a lean state unless I'm leaving a sum for a planned spend. If it comes to the point where the tanker is taking money with it rather than leaving profit, then where is that money going to come from? Should we be happy to subsidise loss making production with historical cash, or should we subsidise it from a bank overdraft? In regular manufacturing companies, a production line will just be mothballed if it goes in the red, for as long as it takes for the number to add up again. A dairy enterprise has to viewed differently as nothing can be mothballed. It doesn't make sense to start pouring money into a black hole without a return to profit in sight.

    I think its not the right thing for the industry to make light of the situation by suggesting we'd be prepared to fund lossmaking production. Because guess what, the retailers would be more than happy to let us do it, and laugh at us behind our backs.

    Id also bet that strength of opinions are directly linked to price received at the moment in time. My price will be leading most of yours, so i am already on twenty point something base for Decembers milk, likely dropping below twenty for the month we're now in. The line you are taking will harden when your price starts with a one friends!
    what does keep the account lean mean? if you are withdrawing surpluses that's one thing if there are no surpluses then that's another thing entirely.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    'Keeping it lean' was meant to suggest deliberate cash management. E.g leaving a sum available for spend, as I said. Mind you, don't expect to be overly burdened with the issue of surplus in spring 15. (Understatement of the year).

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    A cartoon from Private Eye. I would guess that Jonathon Bell may be real farmer or Ex .

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by DairyFarmer111 View Post
    It's true that the majority of us will slog away at the job until it eventually rights itself.

    Your suggestion of profit at twenty p though is not realistic IMO. Dear help us if the supermarket buyer reads that, and that's exactly what I'm talking about. I don't think it's strategically smart to publish things like that. Now, we could argue here all night about what constitutes a cost of production, and we'd all log off without any agreement. But it's a cold fact that paying basic costs like feed, the vet, hired labour, the electric etc is far from covering all the costs of a sustainable and growing business, pay for our skilled inputs, pay tax and create a profit that you can look at in sitting in your personal bank account/pension/ISA.

    What we all can, and will do, is halt planned maintenance and reinvestment as the first casualty. Then we will tighten up on our drawings, which many farmers are able to do if they live in an owned outright farmhouse. We will also be able to say at the end of the year that we didn't add much to our pension either. And when the price rises again, we will have to spend quite heavily to bring the reinvestment back up to where it should be. That will cost many pence per litre in those years. It's also wise to note that, while we are heading back to milk prices of the kind we got in the first 2/3s of the noughties, we are paying about double for compound fertiliser, a tad less than double for nuts, probably double for land rent and a tad under double for contact silage harvesting. Be serious.

    Ask any dairy consultant who does farm costings til you hear what a real range of costs is. Ironically, the guy wearing up on retirement, who has is quite happy to run the assets down on the farm (as a means of actually subsidising his production cost) and who owns his house, who isn't bothered about foreign holidays, who's kids are grown up and doesn't have any interest in the land for sale across the road, will ride it the best.
    The point that I'm trying to make DF is that the problem is not cost of production, which I know varies greatly from farm to farm, but the cost of finance, which is a separate thing and will also vary greatly from farm to farm. Many farmers seemed unable to see an end to 30p plus for their milk so they just kept spending. I can't find the letter from the supermarket telling me to go and buy a new tractor(s), double cab or that new cubicle house for 150 cows, perhaps mine got lost in the post, so they've (we've) spent all this borrowed money and now it has to be paid back. That's the real reason why farmers are complaining about the milk price IMO.

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by simplesimon View Post
    dairy farming in the uk isn't going to completely collapse, a few farmers will stop then supply/demand will re-adjust and the prices will go back up.
    farmers should'nt be struggling yet cos we've had record prices. bank balances should be looking quite good. what i would be worried about is the strengh of the dairy company you sell your milk to, some are obviously struggling more than others. or if your on a short notice contract which some producers wanted only a year or so ago. now they can get rid of you short notice (how the tide has changed). it is going to be tough but farmers are a very resilient bunch and most will find a way to get through. we just got to keep our hands in our pockets like the beef and sheep guys.

    Supply doesn't change much when farmers give up milking - generally speaking the cows just move to another unit which subsequently produces more milk, so there is a slight flaw in this logic....

    (Yes I accept the cr$p cows - disappear, but they were probably only costing the farmer money anyway)

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    Re: Tighten those belts further!! FM another 1.6p

    Quote Originally Posted by yin ewe View Post
    The point that I'm trying to make DF is that the problem is not cost of production, which I know varies greatly from farm to farm, but the cost of finance, which is a separate thing and will also vary greatly from farm to farm. Many farmers seemed unable to see an end to 30p plus for their milk so they just kept spending. I can't find the letter from the supermarket telling me to go and buy a new tractor(s), double cab or that new cubicle house for 150 cows, perhaps mine got lost in the post, so they've (we've) spent all this borrowed money and now it has to be paid back. That's the real reason why farmers are complaining about the milk price IMO.
    That may go on. But I can't think of a dairyfarmer near me stupid enough to have put himself in to the neck in the last year (well from what I can see looking over the hedge). But most of us want to improve our farms unless we are expecting to retire, and that does cost money in the good times. I don't think anyone near me would be overly borrowed, but none of us are chuffed with the price. Doing it on the cheap this year by delaying cost to another year is not giving a real figure. That is the problem I have with calling 20 p a profit making price. In actual fact, farms that are moving forward, and are carrying a planned, manageable, structured debt for the purpose of long term investment, may have a higher cost this year because the debt has to payed every year, but its reflects a far more true cost of production. Isn't that why the cost tracker contracts are still paying 30 plus p? Because that's what all the costs look like when you roll in proper drawings along with proper reinvestment etc.

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